You always have to be wary of a clipper system that is strengthening as it heads your way. I've been burned many times by these type of storms because they usually bring more snow than expected. Although surface temperatures will be above freezing, they will quickly drop once the precip starts. The air is very dry, so there will be major evaporative cooling.
I think the NAM does a pretty good job with this event. It
won't be a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio, so the map below is overdone:
The next map uses the Kuchera algorithm and seems more plausible. Richmond should see 1" or less, though an area from Petersburg to Emporia could see 1 to 3".
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