Irene Update - Friday Afternoon

Irene will briefly maintain its' Category 2 status as it passes the Outer Banks, then it will gradually weaken as it moves north. In fact, it will probably be a strong Category 1 as the eye passes *just* east of Virginia Beach.

It is again important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains will reside within 50 miles of the eye of the storm. Winds and rain totals will drop off dramatically as you move farther west. That is why this is a tricky forecast...a 10 mile shift to the west could mean a lot. Here are the forecast images for Saturday evening and Saturday night. Notice how the heaviest rain stays generally in the eastern half of VA.

My forecast for Richmond remains the same. I think the city will see 1 to 3" of rain west to east. Some areas on the far eastern and southeastern edge could easily pick up over 4". I want to again emphasize that this will not be a continuous rain. Bands will bring occasional downpours.Winds will remain sustained 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph at the peak of the storm Saturday night.

Norfolk, Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore will see hurricane-force winds (70 to 90 mph) and rain totals from 6 to 10". If you live in between Richmond and these areas, you can pretty much take an average between the two.

A tornado watch will be issued Saturday evening and night for eastern VA as Irene interacts with the land. A brief weak tornado will be possible during this time. 

Although Irene will bring powerful winds and storm surge to the coast, ultimately speaking, I think it will be remembered for its' flooding rains. I still think New England will see some bad flooding (too much concrete). However, Irene is nothing like Isabel, especially for central VA.

Irene Update - Thursday Evening

The center of Irene will pass over the Outer Banks midday Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane. The eye will then pass over or *just* off the coast of Virginia Beach Saturday night as a Category 2 hurricane. Irene will then push fairly quickly up the coast Sunday afternoon.

If you are unfamiliar with the Saffir Simpson scale (Category 2 vs 3) you can visit the NHC website to see what to expect. There is no doubt that it will be bad in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws.shtml

Here are the forecasted rain totals. I think Irene will move a little farther west than this computer forecast, but I think it paints a clear picture: rain totals will increase dramatically closer to the coast.

Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Eastern Shore could easily exceed 10". Northern Neck and Williamsburg could get 4 to 8". I'm still going 1 to 3" for Richmond. The rain will not be continuous for Richmond, but bands will bring periods of heavy rain. Here are a couple snap shots of the WSI RPM model for Saturday evening and night. I think the track will be slightly farther west, but I posted these images because it also shows how heavy rains stay near the center of a hurricane.

I should also mention that there will be a tornado watch issued Saturday night as the eye passes. Areas along and east of I-95 (Richmond included) should be aware of isolated weak tornadoes. This always happens with hurricanes because of strong wind shear.

Speaking of winds...

Just like rain, the strongest winds reside near the center of a hurricane. Look at the forecast below:

Again, I'm expecting a path a little farther west than this computer forecast. However, look how dramatically winds drop off from the center. Hurricane-force winds could extend all the way to Williamsburg, but will quickly drop off near Richmond. I'm going to stay with my original forecast for Richmond: 25 to 35 mph sustained winds with gusts up to maybe 45.

There is no need to panic if you live in Richmond. Probably the greatest severe weather threat will be the possibility of isolated tornadoes Saturday night. A couple trees might topple over, otherwise, if you just use your common sense, you will be fine!