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NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SATURDAY 9/19/2015

Things are becoming more clear as this next system approaches the area. Latest data is moving this thing faster and a little farther east. This means that the highest rain totals will be east of San Diego. Regardless, we will have a chance for rain and isolated downpours.

A random shower could pop up on Sunday,  then scattered showers and isolated downpours will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Most of the rain will be gone by Tuesday afternoon. Rain totals will range from 0.2-1.0" for coastal and inland regions, while the mountains and areas eastward could see 1.0-2.0".

You can see the latest computer forecast tracks:


Most guidance keeps this thing below tropical storm strength. After the next 24 hours, it will enter into cooler water and a sheared environment (the upper level storm will chew it up), so it will be tough for it to become a named system. But it will be close!


NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED FRIDAY 9/18/2015

As expected, the computer forecasts are all over the place with this next chance for rain. This is typical with a tropical system (current satellite loop below). Most of the variance comes with timing. Some forecasts have rain as early as Monday, while others delay it until Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday seems to be a safe bet, however, keep a close eye to the forecast because there will definitely be some adjustments.

Track will also be key. If this thing drifts east too much, we'll get less rain. I'll continue to bring more updates this weekend.



NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED WED 9/16/2015

Southern California could see more rain near the start of next workweek (Monday/Tuesday). A storm system will get cut off from the jet stream and meander hundreds of miles off the West Coast. In the meantime, some energy will move northward from the tropics. Both of these features could merge together and move into our region.

There are a lot of factors that could affect the timing and track of this system, so rain isn't guaranteed yet. However, multiple computer forecasts are starting to show this scenario, so it's definitely worth watching in the coming days. I'll have more updates soon.


SAN DIEGO COUNTY RAIN TOTALS: TUE 9/15/2015 TO WED 9/16/2015

With the exception of a stray renegade light shower, we are now done with the rainfall throughout San Diego County. Here are the two day rain totals across the region:


 : ID :      STATION           ELEV : HIGH / LOW /  RAIN / SNOW 

 :        ...COASTAL AREAS...
 :
 YBLC1:      YORBA LINDA        350 :   83 /  66 /  1.55 / 
 FUL  :      FULLERTON AIRPORT   96 :   83 /  68 /  1.18 /
 ANAC1:    * ANAHEIM            335 :   82 /   M /     M /
 STAC1:      SANTA ANA          135 :   83 /  69 /  0.72 /
 SDHTB:      HUNTINGTON BEACH     5 :   79 /  68 /  0.74 /
 SNA  :      JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT  55 :   79 /  69 /  1.18 /
 3L3  :    * NEWPORT BEACH       10 :   76 /   M /     M /
 LAGC1:      LAGUNA BEACH        35 :   78 /   M /  0.04 /
 SDDPC:      DANA POINT         305 :   75 /  67 /  0.00 /
 SDFRH:      LAKE FOREST        970 :   79 /  63 /  1.56 /
 L34  :      OCEANSIDE HARBOR    10 :   75 /  70 /  1.10 /
 OKB  :      OCEANSIDE AIRPORT   28 :   79 /  69 /  1.14 /
 SDVIS:      VISTA              330 :   77 /  66 /  1.26 /
 CRQ  :      CARLSBAD AIRPORT   328 :   75 /  68 /  0.64 /
 SDETS:      ENCINITAS          270 :   75 /  66 /  1.11 /
 SOL  :      SOLANA BEACH        75 :   76 /   M /  0.54 /
 DMRC1:    * DEL MAR            100 :   75 /   M /     M /
 NKX  :      MIRAMAR            477 :   80 /  69 /  1.03 /
 MYF  :      MONTGOMERY FIELD   420 :   78 /  66 /  1.05 /
 SAN  :      SAN DIEGO           15 :   79 /  68 /  1.23 /
 L13  :      CABRILLO NATL MNMT 364 :    M /   M /     M /
 SDNAC:      NATIONAL CITY       25 :   80 /  67 /  0.09 /
 CVAC1:    * CHULA VISTA         56 :   81 /   M /     M /
 NRS  :      IMPERIAL BEACH      23 :   82 /  69 /  0.45 /
 SDM  :      BROWN FIELD        525 :   82 /  65 /  0.85 /
 :
 :        ...INLAND AREAS...
 :
 ONT  :      ONTARIO            943 :   79 /  65 /  1.25 /
 CNO  :      CHINO              652 :   83 /  67 /  0.72 /
 SDALO:      RANCHO CUCAMONGA  1940 :   76 /  61 /  0.84 /
 SDSBO:      SAN BERNARDINO    1050 :   79 /  65 /  1.76 /
 AJO  :      CORONA             531 :   82 /  65 /  1.58 /
 RAL  :      RIVERSIDE AIRPORT  818 :   82 /  66 /  1.83 /
 UCRC1:      RIVERSIDE          986 :   82 /  65 /  1.08 /
 RIV  :      RIVERSIDE MARCH   1542 :   81 /  64 /  0.43 /
 BUO  :      BEAUMONT          2680 :   72 /  62 /  1.61 /
 EORC1:    * ELSINORE          1285 :   80 /   M /     M /
 HEMC1:    * HEMET             1811 :   76 /   M /     M /
 SDTEC:      TEMECULA          1020 :   79 /  64 /  0.73 /
 SDFBK:      FALLBROOK          698 :   79 /  66 /  1.38 /
 SDSMP:      SAN MARCOS         630 :   77 /  65 /  0.61 /
 ESCC1:      ESCONDIDO          645 :   78 /  66 /  0.89 /
 PSQC1:      SAN PASQUAL VALLEY 255 :   80 /  66 /  0.49 /
 RNM  :      RAMONA AIRPORT    1393 :   76 /  63 /  1.30 /
 SGX  :      RANCHO BERNARDO    690 :   77 /  65 /  0.52 /
 POWC1:    * POWAY              648 :   78 /   M /     M /
 ALPC1:      ALPINE            1695 :   76 /  62 /  0.82 /
 SDLAM:      LA MESA            500 :   78 /  64 /  1.12 /
 SDSNL:      SANTEE             435 :   78 /  66 /  1.32 /
 ELJC1:      EL CAJON           405 :   80 /  66 /  0.37 /
 SDRSC:      RANCHO SAN DIEGO   400 :   81 /  64 /  0.47 /
 LMGC1:      LEMON GROVE        427 :   79 /  65 /  0.80 /
 :
 :        ...MOUNTAIN AREAS...
 :
 ECSC1:      EL CARISO         2730 :   70 /  59 /  1.13 / 
 WRIC1:      WRIGHTWOOD        5980 :   60 /   M /     M /
 SDARN:      LAKE ARROWHEAD    5180 :   62 /  53 /  2.00 /
 BBLC1:    * BIG BEAR LAKE     6768 :   58 /  49 /  1.27 
 SDBDN:      BALDWIN LAKE      6770 :   62 /  48 /  0.26 /
 SDAOK:      ANGELUS OAKS      5800 :   59 /  49 /  1.43 /
 SDPCV:      PINE COVE         6299 :   58 /  49 /  0.99 /
 IDYC1:      IDYLLWILD         5380 :   63 /  51 /  1.20 /
 NZAC1:      ANZA              3939 :   67 /  57 /  0.52 / 
 PYNC1:      PINYON PINES      4060 :   76 /  58 /  0.35 / 
 PLRC1:    * PALOMAR MOUNTAIN  5550 :   61 /   M /     M /
 JULC1:      JULIAN            4240 :   64 /  56 /  1.64 / 
 MLNC1:    * MOUNT LAGUNA      5920 :   62 /   M /     M /
 CZZ  :    * CAMPO COOP        2615 :   77 /   M /     M /
 :
 :        ...DESERT AREAS...
 :
 HESC1:    * HESPERIA          3055 :   75 /  62 /  0.05 /
 APLC1:      APPLE VALLEY      2780 :   80 /   M /     M /
 PSP  :      PALM SPRINGS       425 :   87 /  72 /  0.14 / 
 IDOC1:      INDIO              -21 :   87 /  76 /  0.03 /
 TRM  :      THERMAL           -117 :   92 /  65 /  0.01 / 
 BROC1:      BORREGO            805 :   88 /   M /     M /
 OCWC1:      OCOTILLO WELLS     390 :   92 /  73 /  0.05 /
 TYEC1:      JOSHUA TREE N.P.  1975 :   83 /   M /     M /
 BLH  :      BLYTHE             397 :   97 /  77 /  0.00 /
 IPL  :      IMPERIAL           -56 :   99 /  77 /  0.00 /

SAN DIEGO COUNTY RAIN TOTALS: TUESDAY 9/15/2015

Showers continue to diminish across the area. Isolated light showers and patchy drizzle are still possible through tonight, however, the heaviest rain is gone. Here are the rain totals so far:


: ID :      STATION           ELEV  : HIGH / LOW /  PCPN / SNODEP
 :                             FEET                        INCHES
 :
 :        ...COASTAL AREAS...
 :
 YBLC1:      YORBA LINDA        350 :   83 /  69 /  1.65 /
 FUL  :      FULLERTON AIRPORT   96 :   83 /  71 /  1.29 /
 ANAC1:    * ANAHEIM            335 :    M /   M /     M /
 STAC1:      SANTA ANA          135 :   83 /  70 /  0.97 /
 SDHTB:      HUNTINGTON BEACH     5 :   79 /  71 /  0.78 /
 SNA  :      JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT  55 :   79 /  70 /  1.49 /
 3L3  :    * NEWPORT BEACH       10 :   76 /  72 /     M /
 LAGC1:      LAGUNA BEACH        35 :   78 /  73 /  1.04 /
 SDDPC:      DANA POINT         305 :   75 /  70 /     M /
 SDFRH:      LAKE FOREST        970 :   79 /  68 /  1.43 /
 L34  :      OCEANSIDE HARBOR    10 :   75 /  73 /  1.07 /
 OKB  :      OCEANSIDE AIRPORT   28 :   79 /  71 /  1.07 /
 SDVIS:      VISTA              330 :   77 /  70 /  1.15 /
 CRQ  :      CARLSBAD AIRPORT   328 :   75 /   M /  0.63 /
 SDETS:      ENCINITAS          270 :   75 /  71 /  1.07 /
 SOL  :      SOLANA BEACH        75 :   76 /  72 /  0.55 /
 DMRC1:    * DEL MAR            100 :   75 /  73 /  0.58 /
 NKX  :      MIRAMAR            477 :    M /  75 /  0.80 /
 MYF  :      MONTGOMERY FIELD   420 :   78 /  72 /  0.98 /
 SAN  :      SAN DIEGO           15 :   79 /  74 /  1.15 /
 L13  :      CABRILLO NATL MNMT 364 :    M /   M /  1.14 /
 SDNAC:      NATIONAL CITY       25 :   80 /  75 /  0.06 /
 CVAC1:    * CHULA VISTA         56 :   81 /  74 /  0.10 /
 NRS  :      IMPERIAL BEACH      23 :   82 /  77 /  0.29 /
 SDM  :      BROWN FIELD        525 :   82 /  73 /  0.58 /
 :
 :        ...INLAND AREAS...
 :
 ONT  :      ONTARIO            943 :   79 /  67 /  1.25 /
 CNO  :      CHINO              652 :   83 /  69 /  0.72 /
 SDALO:      RANCHO CUCAMONGA  1940 :   76 /  65 /  0.84 /
 SDSBO:      SAN BERNARDINO    1050 :   78 /  67 /  1.76 /
 AJO  :      CORONA             531 :   82 /  67 /  1.58 /
 RAL  :      RIVERSIDE AIRPORT  818 :   82 /  68 /  1.73 /
 UCRC1:      RIVERSIDE          986 :   82 /  68 /  1.08 /
 RIV  :      RIVERSIDE MARCH   1542 :   80 /  67 /  0.43 /
 BUO  :      BEAUMONT          2680 :   72 /  64 /  1.53 /
 EORC1:    * ELSINORE          1285 :   80 /  68 /  0.78 /
 HEMC1:    * HEMET             1811 :   76 /  66 /  0.70 /
 SDTEC:      TEMECULA          1020 :   79 /  69 /  0.69 /
 SDFBK:      FALLBROOK          698 :   79 /  69 /  1.33 /
 SDSMP:      SAN MARCOS         630 :   77 /  70 /  0.60 /
 ESCC1:      ESCONDIDO          645 :   78 /  71 /  0.75 /
 PSQC1:      SAN PASQUAL VALLEY 255 :   80 /  68 /  0.43 /
 RNM  :      RAMONA AIRPORT    1393 :   76 /  66 /  1.26 /
 SGX  :      RANCHO BERNARDO    690 :   77 /  71 /  0.44 /
 POWC1:    * POWAY              648 :   78 /  70 /  0.44 /
 ALPC1:      ALPINE            1695 :   76 /  68 /  0.67 /
 SDLAM:      LA MESA            500 :   78 /  70 /  1.05 /
 SDSNL:      SANTEE             435 :   78 /  71 /  1.32 /
 ELJC1:    * EL CAJON           405 :   80 /  73 /  0.25 /
 SDRSC:      RANCHO SAN DIEGO   400 :   81 /  71 /  0.25 /
 LMGC1:      LEMON GROVE        427 :   79 /  72 /  0.80 /
 :
 :        ...MOUNTAIN AREAS...
 :
 ECSC1:      EL CARISO         2730 :   70 /  62 /  1.11 / 
 WRIC1:      WRIGHTWOOD        5980 :   60 /  53 /  0.99 / 
 SDARN:      LAKE ARROWHEAD    5180 :   62 /  56 /  1.93 / 
 BBLC1:    * BIG BEAR LAKE     6768 :   58 /  52 /  1.27 / 
 SDBDN:      BALDWIN LAKE      6770 :   62 /  51 /  0.16 /
 SDAOK:      ANGELUS OAKS      5800 :   59 /  52 /  1.40 /
 SDPCV:      PINE COVE         6299 :   58 /  51 /  0.98 /
 IDYC1:      IDYLLWILD         5380 :   62 /  53 /  1.20 / 
 NZAC1:      ANZA              3939 :   67 /  59 /  0.51 / 
 PYNC1:      PINYON PINES      4060 :   76 /  61 /  0.35 / 
 PLRC1:    * PALOMAR MOUNTAIN  5550 :    M /   M /     M / 
 JULC1:      JULIAN            4240 :   64 /  57 /  0.92 / 
 MLNC1:    * MOUNT LAGUNA      5920 :   62 /  52 /  0.68 / 
 CZZ  :    * CAMPO COOP        2615 :    M /   M /     M / 
 :
 :        ...DESERT AREAS...
 :
 HESC1:    * HESPERIA          3055 :   75 /  64 /  0.05 / 
 APLC1:      APPLE VALLEY      2780 :    M /   M /     M / 
 PSP  :      PALM SPRINGS       425 :   87 /  77 /  0.14 / 
 IDOC1:      INDIO              -21 :   87 /  75 /  0.03 / 
 TRM  :      THERMAL           -117 :   92 /  71 /    T  / 
 BROC1:      BORREGO            805 :   88 /  73 /  0.15 / 
 OCWC1:      OCOTILLO WELLS     390 :   92 /  76 /  0.00 / 
 TYEC1:      JOSHUA TREE N.P.  1975 :   83 /  69 /  0.04 / 
 BLH  :      BLYTHE             397 :   97 /  76 /  0.00 /
 IPLPSG      IMPERIAL           -56 :   98 /  76 /  0.00 /

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: 3 PM TUESDAY 9/15/2015

Most of the steady rain is now pushing out of the southern portions of San Diego County. A stray isolated shower will be possible for the rest of this evening and tonight, however, the heaviest rain has now exited the region. I'll post rain totals later this evening. Until then, you can find them on the Rain Totals section of this website:

http://sandiegoweathercenter.blogspot.com/p/rain.html

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: 8 AM TUESDAY 9/15/2015

Scattered showers will pass the area today from 8 AM to 2 PM. Embedded within the showers will be isolated downpours. Afterwards, extremely isolated showers will be possible from 2 PM today to 9 AM Wednesday. Rain totals will range from 0.1" to 1.0" with some areas in the mountains receiving more.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: 9 PM MONDAY 9/14/15

After looking at the latest data, this storm system doesn't look as impressive. Regardless, there is still a chance for showers and isolated downpours late tonight and through Tuesday. A rumble or two of thunder is also possible. The rain chances diminish by Wednesday morning.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SUNDAY 9/13/2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

The air will be warm and humid, which makes the atmosphere unstable. You can see the SFC CAPE levels (instability parameter) on the map below. A weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will pass the area and spark the formation of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The strongest storms will bring heavy downpours and lightning/thunder. These storms will be hit-and-miss, so not every area will see the heavy rain. Regardless, you should be prepared for the possibility of poor driving conditions during the Monday evening commute.

A stray shower is possible Monday morning, however, the best chances for rain will be from 3 PM Monday through 8 AM Tuesday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms could again pop up on Tuesday afternoon.

ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MONDAY EVENING

FORECAST

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

COAST INLAND

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