CALIFORNIA WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY 2012

The weather should remain warm through Saturday, then we will see some cool changes next week. Unfortunately, I don't see much rain with this current pattern. I've posted two maps below which show temperature anomalies and precipitation anomalies over the past 30 days. It has been very dry and warm for most of the state.

The weather pattern will be dominated by northwest flow in the jet stream for the next several days. This means we will see a prolonged period of slightly cooler than average weather with an occasional warm day. I'm leaving the forecast dry through the end of February. We might eventually see a storm system sneak into our area by the first week of March.

VERIFICATION

ECMWF did an excellent job with the track of this storm. It showed hints of this storm eight days before it happened! I based my forecast on this model and did not waiver when the other models flip-flopped.

Within 48 hours, NAM generally did a good job with snow accumulations, though it was too ambitious with snow-to-liquid ratios (as expected). In addition, it was too far north in the early runs (as expected). RPM also did well within 36 hours. GFS was the worst.

I have to admit, there was definitely some luck mixed in with skill while making this forecast. I'm glad it panned out!

Here are the snow totals:

LAST UPDATE MID-ATLANTIC SNOW - SUNDAY MORNING

RPM always does very well during the day of a storm, and to be honest, I like this solution the best. I've gone for 3 to 6" in the Richmond metro all along, so there is no reason to change it now. Be sure to check with your local meteorologist for the latest with this storm.

As expected, the NAM shifted back north. I still think it's too far south though. All in all a somewhat plausible solution.

GFS...well...we'll see if this happens...doubt it.