MID-ATLANTIC SNOW THURSDAY UPDATE

The ECMWF ensemble mean has nailed this storm from the very beginning - it showed hints of this storm last Saturday! There is no need to look at any other computer model at this point. Not until 36 to 48 hours before the storm hits. Surface temperatures in Central Virginia will be a concern early Sunday, but this storm will bring down cold air aloft, so accumulations should begin late in the day.

Right now the only unknown is the exact track of this storm. This will allow us to pinpoint the location of the heaviest band of snow. 

Click on the images below to enlarge:

SAN DIEGO COUNTY RAIN TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY 2/15/2012

UPDATE ON MID-ATLANTIC SNOW

No major changes in the 00Z data (unless you are following the worthless GFS). It sill looks like there will be a major low pressure forming with a narrow band of heavy wet snow. Now we get to decide where! I would wait at least one more day before things start becoming more concrete.