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NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SATURDAY 3-14-2020

The core of the next storm system is drifting southward off the coast on Northern California. It will bring our area more rain for next workweek.

Showers will first arrive Monday evening into Monday night. Intermittent showers and isolated downpours will be possible on-and-off Tuesday, Wednesday and early Thursday.

Snow levels will steadily drop as the core of this system passes overhead.The highest peaks in San Diego county should get some accumulating snow.
  • Monday evening: 8,000 to 9,000 feet 
  • Tuesday: 4,500 to 5,500 feet
  • Wednesday: 4,000 to 5,000 feet
  • Thursday: 4,000 to 5,000 feet
There isn't as much moisture with this system compared to last week's storm. Three day rain totals should be around an inch of rainfall with some isolated areas in the mountains approaching two inches. I've posted projected rain and snow totals through Thursday below. It looks like the Sierras will receive a lot of precipitation, which is always great news!

Yet another system could bring more rain to our area by next weekend!



SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: MONDAY 3-9-2020 TO SATURDAY 3-14-2020

I'm going to use this blog post to keep a running total of rainfall through this week. Here are the totals at 9 AM Saturday.



Alpine (ANEC1)2.39
Barona (BNAC1)2.92
Barret Lake (BRTC1)2.38
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)2.56
Birch Hill (IRCC1)6.52
Bonita (BNNC1)1.36
Bonsall (BOSC1)3.31
Brown Field (SDM)1.23
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)2.53
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)3.55
Deer Springs (DRGC1)3.10
Descanso (DENC1)2.95
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)2.30
Echo Dell (ECDC1)2.26
El Cajon (LCKC1)2.82
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)2.69
Encinitas (ENCC1)2.75
Escondido (ESOC1)3.48
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)1.47
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)2.63
Goose Valley (GOSC1)3.19
Granite Hills (GRHC1)3.17
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)2.44
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)3.79
Julian (JLNC1)3.87
Julian (JULC1)4.01
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)2.05
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)3.62
La Mesa (LMSC1)2.24
Lake Hodges (HODC1)3.05
Las Flores (LSFC1)2.19
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)1.17
MCOLF - Red Beach (NXF)1.08
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)4.00
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)2.51
Mission Valley (BVDC1)1.75
Montgomery Field (MYF)1.73
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)3.53
Oceanside (OCNC1)2.87
Oceanside (OKB)2.40
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)3.02
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)2.75
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)5.99
Pine Hills (PIHC1)4.05
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)4.22
Point Loma (L13)1.24
Potrero (PRCC1)2.80
Potrero CDF (POTC1)2.35
Poway (PWYC1)2.51
Ramona (RMNC1)3.56
Ramona (RNM)2.55
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)2.31
Rincon Springs (RINC1)3.76
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)1.95
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)2.59
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)2.55
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)2.31
San Miguel (MIGC1)1.74
San Pasqual (PSQC1)2.68
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)3.32
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)3.34
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)3.69
Valley Center (VALC1)3.07
Valley Center (VLCC1)3.00
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)5.05
Warner Springs (WSGC1)3.05
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)2.69
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)3.10
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)3.85

WEATHER UPDATE: WEDNESDAY 3-11-2020

The core of the storm system remains off the coast of Southern California. You can spot it in the satellite loop below - it almost looks like the eye of a hurricane.

Moisture is being pushed ahead of this system. This moisture will wrap around the storm as it tracks south of our area. This will spark off more showers and isolated downpours starting Thursday morning. Periods of rain will persist through Thursday. Showers will become more isolated Thursday night into Friday. A renegade shower could pop up early Saturday, but most of the day looks dry.

The track of this system is key to the rain totals. The computer forecasts continue to perform terribly. I've posted two projections below. One pushes the rain mostly to the mountains and eastward/northward. I still think coastal and inland areas could see a half inch to an inch. Mountains and areas eastward could see 1 to 3", where thunderstorms are more likely.

I'm still watching another system that will move in late Monday into Tuesday next week. This will bring more showers and significantly lower snow levels.




WEATHER UPDATE: SUNDAY 3-8-2020

Our next storm system is spinning right off the Southern California Coast. You can spot it on the satellite loop below. Showers will develop late Monday afternoon and into Monday night. Rain with embedded downpours will be possible through the day on Tuesday. Showers will become more isolated heading into Wednesday.

It's not surprising that computer forecasts can't agree with this system. At this point, I'm going to rely on global models like the ECMWF (Euro) and GFS for this storm. They usually have better data over the Pacific Ocean. Euro is showing the most rainfall compared to the rest of the computer forecasts. It's showing 1-3" across the area.

I've posted the projected rain totals from the GFS computer model. It's showing 0.5" to 1.5" across the area, which seems somewhat reasonable though perhaps a tad conservative. It's a tough call considering that a slight shift in the storm track could dramatically increase or decrease those totals. I'm going to keep watching the data and will bring more updates if needed.

Snow levels will remain high with this system, so I'm not expecting snow in local mountains. 







SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: SATURDAY 3-7-2020




Alpine (ANEC1)0.01
Barona (BNAC1)0.02
Barret Lake (BRTC1)0.00
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)0.00
Birch Hill (IRCC1)0.06
Bonita (BNNC1)0.06
Bonsall (BOSC1)0.06
Brown Field (SDM)0.13
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)0.00
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)0.02
Deer Springs (DRGC1)0.02
Descanso (DENC1)0.00
Descanso RS (DSCC1)0.00
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)0.00
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)0.00
Echo Dell (ECDC1)0.00
El Cajon (LCKC1)0.00
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)0.06
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)0.00
Encinitas (ENCC1)0.20
Escondido (ESOC1)0.01
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)0.00
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)0.00
Goose Valley (GOSC1)0.00
Granite Hills (GRHC1)0.01
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)0.00
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)0.00
Julian (JLNC1)0.01
Julian (JULC1)0.00
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)0.13
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)0.00
La Mesa (LMSC1)0.00
Lake Hodges (HODC1)0.01
Las Flores (LSFC1)0.21
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)0.01
Marron Valley (MAVC1)0.00
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)0.00
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)0.08
Mission Valley (BVDC1)0.02
Montgomery Field (MYF)0.05
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)0.03
Oceanside (OCNC1)0.00
Oceanside (OKB)0.03
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)0.06
Palomar Airport (CRQ)0.05
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)0.05
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)0.03
Pine Hills (PIHC1)0.04
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)0.02
Point Loma (L13)0.00
Potrero (PRCC1)0.02
Potrero CDF (POTC1)0.01
Poway (PWYC1)0.02
Ramona (RMNC1)0.00
Ramona (RNM)0.01
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)0.01
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)0.00
Rincon Springs (RINC1)0.00
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)0.00
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)0.00
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)0.05
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)0.01
San Miguel (MIGC1)0.06
San Pasqual (PSQC1)0.02
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)0.00
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)0.04
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)0.01
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)0.00
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)0.00
Valley Center (VALC1)0.01
Valley Center (VLCC1)0.02
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)0.00
Warner Springs (WSGC1)0.00
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)0.02
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)0.01
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)0.01

FORECAST

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

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