Well, it's finally time to start updating the blog again. Rain season has begun!
El Niño is strong with equatorial Pacific waters being very warm. Subsurface temperatures are also warm, which means El Niño will persist through winter. This typically equates to wet conditions throughout Southern California. You can track water temperatures in the El Niño section of my website.
The computer forecasts have been pretty terrible with this upcoming storm system. This usually happens during the transitional autumn months leading into winter. It seems like they are starting to become more consistent.
There is a storm system in the Gulf Of Alaska that will deepen once a piece of energy migrates out of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. You can see it as a blob of blue in the satellite loop below.
This system will settle off the coast of California and give us a few bouts of rain from Wednesday evening (11/15) through Saturday morning (11/18).
It appears that the best chance for substantial rain will be when the core of the system passes Friday into early Saturday.
This is still far away and a lot can change, so I will definitely will have another update once the data is more concrete. I've posted the current projections for rain totals through Saturday morning, which show us getting around an inch of rain.
