NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SATURDAY 11-30-2019

A couple storm systems will merge together and bring our area another chance for rain next Tuesday night into Wednesday. You can spot them on the satellite loop below. One is spinning off the Pacific Northwest coastline. Another is spiraling in the Pacific Ocean off the California coast.

Computer forecasts have been fairly consistent with this scenario and have both systems merging and bringing rain to Southern California Tuesday night. Periods of rain and isolated downpours/thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday. 0.5" to 1.0" of rainfall is possible. I've posted projected rain totals below. You can see that the Central Coast will get the lion's share of the rainfall.

This system is warm-cored, so snow levels will remain high. I'm not expecting any significant snow in local mountains.

I'll bring more updates as the system approaches. I'm also watching for another rain chance possibly arriving next weekend.

SNOW TOTALS: THURSDAY 11-28-2019 TO SATURDAY 11-30-2019

.SNOWFALL REPORTS (HIGHEST) BY LOCATION...

STATION                        PRECIP(IN)  ELEV.(FT)  LAST UPDATED

BIG BEAR RESORTS                   48          7100   0900 FRIDAY   
RUNNING SPRINGS                    48          6300   1400 FRIDAY
GREEN VALLEY LAKE               36-40          7000   1400 FRIDAY
YUCAIPA RIDGE/FOREST FALLS         36          9000   0900 FRIDAY
SNOW VALLEY                        36          6800   0900 FRIDAY
LAKE ARROWHEAD                  26-36          5600   0000 SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN HIGH RESORT            24-36          7000   0900 FRIDAY
ARROWBEAR                        33.5          6200   0000 FRIDAY
MT BALDY                           32          6300   0900 FRIDAY
BIG BEAR CITY                   20-30          6700   1400 FRIDAY
WRIGHTWOOD                      24-28          6400   0000 FRIDAY
ANGELUS OAKS                       27          5800   0900 FRIDAY
TWIN PEAKS                         26          5725   1400 FRIDAY
BLUE JAY (NEAR GOLF COURSE)        26          5200   2100 THURSDAY
GRASS VALLEY LAKE               24-26          5300   1700 FRIDAY
CEDAR PINES PARK                   24          5200   1400 FRIDAY
BARTON FLATS                       24          8900   0900 FRIDAY
BIRCH HILL (PALOMAR MTN)         22.5          5700   0000 SATURDAY
BIG BEAR LAKE                      22          6800   0000 FRIDAY
MT LAGUNA                          18          5920   1700 FRIDAY
CRESTLINE                          18          4700   1400 FRIDAY
IDYLLWILD                          20          5400   0900 FRIDAY
OAK GLEN                           12          4900   0900 FRIDAY
PHELAN                            8.5          4300   2200 FRIDAY
LYTLE CREEK                         7          3400   0900 FRIDAY
JULIAN                              6          4240   1700 FRIDAY
ANZA-BORREGO DRC                    4          2500   0900 FRIDAY
YUCAIPA                             3          3000   0000 FRIDAY
DESCANSO                            2          3300   1400 FRIDAY
PINE VALLEY                         2          3800   0000 FRIDAY
BEAUMONT                          1-2          2600   0000 FRIDAY
VICTORVILLE                       1-2          2900   0000 FRIDAY
APPLE VALLEY                     0.75          2700   1200 THURSDAY

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: WEDNESDAY 11-27-2019 TO FRIDAY 11-29-2019

I'll use this post to keep a three day running total of rainfall. Here are the totals as of 10 AM Saturday.

Alpine (ANEC1)	2.62
Barona (BNAC1)	2.03
Barret Lake (BRTC1)	1.81
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)	2.10
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	0.84
Bonita (BNNC1)	2.46
Bonsall (BOSC1)	2.61
Brown Field (SDM)	2.36
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)	1.25
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	2.09
Descanso (DENC1)	2.99
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	2.81
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	1.61
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	2.72
Echo Dell (ECDC1)	3.01
El Cajon (LCKC1)	2.26
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)	2.26
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)	1.87
Encinitas (ENCC1)	2.68
Escondido (ESOC1)	2.55
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)	1.97
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	2.10
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	2.16
Granite Hills (GRHC1)	2.29
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	2.32
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	3.05
Julian (JLNC1)	2.40
Julian (JULC1)	2.39
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	1.96
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	2.94
La Mesa (LMSC1)	2.13
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	2.21
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.07
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)	1.96
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)	2.66
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	2.13
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	2.46
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	2.38
Oceanside (OCNC1)	2.80
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	2.54
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	2.55
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	1.21
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	3.28
Point Loma (L13)	1.61
Poway (PWYC1)	2.22
Ramona (RMNC1)	2.04
Ramona (RNM)	2.21
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	1.86
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)	2.60
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	2.20
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	2.50
San Miguel (MIGC1)	1.13
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	2.00
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)	2.46
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	0.20
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	2.44
Solana Beach (SOB)	0.00
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	2.65
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	2.77
Valley Center (VALC1)	2.61
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	0.59
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	1.98
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	2.03
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)	2.17
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	2.28

WEATHER UPDATE: 10 AM WEDNESDAY 11-27-2019

There are no major changes to the forecast. Coastal and inland areas should get 2-3" of total rainfall (map below). Areas in the mountains will exceed 4-5" of precipitation (rain/snow combined). Local mountains will get several inches of snow (map below). Taller mountains to the north will get as much as 2 feet. Rain will exit the region Friday night.

As always, visit the National Weather Service for all the latest weather advisories and warnings in our area. Stay safe!

https://www.weather.gov/sgx/


Wednesday Afternoon
Showers will approach from the north around noon today. This rainfall will persist into the early evening. Winds 15-25, up to 40 in the mountains. Snow levels 6,000-7,000.

Wednesday Night
Intermittent showers. Winds 5-15, up to 30 in the mountains. Snow levels 5,000 to 6,000 feet.

Thursday Morning
Rain with embedded downpours and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area starting at 5-6 AM. Winds 25-35, gusts up to 55 in the mountains. Snow levels 5,000 to 6,000 feet.

Thursday Afternoon
Rain with isolated downpours/thunderstorms move through the area. Showers will become more intermittent by the evening. Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 4,500 to 5,500 feet.

Thursday Night
Periods of rain, occasional downpour possible. Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Friday Morning 
Lingering showers. Winds 10-20, gusts up to 45 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,000 to 4,000 feet.

Friday Afternoon
Isolated showers.  Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Friday Night 
Rain chance diminishes.  Winds 5-15, gusts up to 40 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Computer projected rain totals from this storm system

Computer projected snow totals from this storm system

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SUNDAY 11-24-2019

I've sifted through all the latest data this morning. A forecast like this is always challenging because the slightest shift in storm track can dramatically affect rain and snow totals. Computer forecasts have been a little inconsistent with the track of the core of this system. There has been some wobbling east and west, though this is to be expected. Regardless, not much has changed with the forecast - rain is likely for the upcoming week with significant snow in the mountains.

Showers could start as early as late morning Wednesday (40%), then rain is likely Wednesday afternoon/evening (100%). Periods of rain with embedded heavy downpours will then persist on-and-off through the day Thanksgiving (100%). It will be a raw and windy day. Wind gusts in the mountains will be intense.

Intermittent showers will linger on Friday (80%). The rain chance then diminishes Friday night.

Snow levels will start at 7,000 feet Wednesday morning, then steadily drop through the day to 5,000 feet Wednesday night. Snow levels will range from 4,000 to 5,000 Thursday, then fall as low as 3,000 feet on Friday. The tallest mountains in San Diego County could easily get a few inches. Peaks in the San Jacinto and San Bernardino mountains should exceed a foot of snow.

I've included the latest computer forecast for rain and snow totals. This system is still far away, so there will be some adjustments to this forecast in the coming days.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED FRIDAY 11-22-2019

I'm keeping a close eye on our next storm system, which could bring significant rainfall to Southern California heading into Thanksgiving. There will be an enormous buckle in the jet stream, which will allow a powerful storm system to dive south from the Gulf of Alaska and settle right off the coast of California. You can spot it on the first map below.

Most computer forecasts have rain arriving in our area midday Wednesday. We will then experience several rounds of rain with embedded downpours that will persist through the day on Thanksgiving.

Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, then lingering showers will diminish Saturday. If this system takes the current projected path, rain totals could easily approach 3-4" with higher amounts in the mountains. I've included one computer outlook below.

Snow levels will be high though Thanksgiving, then levels will drop as the core of the system passes overhead. This should bring snow to the taller mountains in San Diego County.

This storm system is still far away, so a lot can change with the forecast. Given the upcoming Holiday, you should start planning for bad road conditions. Better safe than sorry!

I'll bring more updates in the coming days.

SNOW TOTALS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: TUESDAY 11-19-2019 TO THURSDAY 11-21-2019

STATION                        SNOW(IN)   ELEVATION(FT)

GREEN VALLEY LAKE                 13           6900
ARROWBEAR                          9           6200
RUNNING SPRINGS                    9           6200
BIG BEAR RESORTS                   5           7100
END OF BALDY ROAD                  5           6400
BARTON FLATS                       4           8800
WRIGHTWOOD                         4           6040
LAKE ARROWHEAD                     3           5400
FOREST FALLS                       3           6000
BLUE JAY                           3           5400
BIG BEAR LAKE                      3           6800
WRIGHTWOOD                         3           5900
BIG BEAR CITY                      3           6800
RUNNING SPRINGS                    2-3         6100
PALOMAR MTN                        2           5580
ANGELUS OAKS                       2           5700
BIRCH HILL                         2           5645
MT. LAGUNA LODGE                   2           5918
CRESTLINE                          1.5         4500
LAKE ARROWHEAD                     1.5         5200

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: TUESDAY 11-19-2019 TO THURSDAY 11-21-2019

Here are the 3-day rain totals at 5 PM Thursday.

Barona (BNAC1)	2.79
Barret Lake (BRTC1)	3.07
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	4.42
Bonita (BNNC1)	1.52
Bonsall (BOSC1)	1.35
Brown Field (SDM)	2.08
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)	1.76
Camp Pendleton (NFG)	1.09
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)	4.35
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	2.74
Descanso (DENC1)	4.43
Echo Dell (ECDC1)	3.59
El Cajon (LCKC1)	2.19
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)	1.21
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)	2.36
Encinitas (ENCC1)	0.87
Escondido (ESOC1)	2.40
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)	0.99
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	2.61
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	3.05
Granite Hills (GRHC1)	2.13
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	2.80
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	4.69
Julian (JLNC1)	3.28
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	0.83
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	3.20
La Mesa (LMSC1)	1.30
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	2.89
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.24
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)	0.78
Marron Valley (MAVC1)	1.10
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)	3.91
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	1.84
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	1.20
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	2.89
Oceanside (OCNC1)	0.67
Oceanside (OKB)	0.87
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)	4.52
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	1.03
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	1.05
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	4.31
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	3.84
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	4.21
Point Loma (L13)	1.11
Potrero (PRCC1)	3.45
Poway (PWYC1)	2.47
Ramona (RMNC1)	3.70
Ramona (RNM)	2.15
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	2.12
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	3.04
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	1.97
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)	2.02
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	1.52
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	1.21
San Miguel (MIGC1)	0.91
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	2.58
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)	3.40
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	0.24
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	3.19
Solana Beach (SOB)	0.13
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	4.11
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	2.35
Valley Center (VALC1)	4.33
Valley Center (VLCC1)	4.14
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	3.67
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	3.18
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	0.70
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)	3.79
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	2.18

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED MONDAY 11-18-2019

There are no major changes from the initial forecast. The storm system is on our doorstep and will bring the first substantial rainfall to Southern California this rain season.

On the satellite image below, you can spot a system spinning to our south. This will provide some moisture to our area tomorrow. An isolated shower could pop up Tuesday, especially in the afternoon (40%).

A better chance for rain arrives Tuesday night and persists through the day on Wednesday as a more potent system dives from the north (also spotted on the satellite image below). Periods of rain are likely during this time period (90%). Isolated downpours and thunderstorms are also possible.

Lingering showers are possible Thursday, especially in the morning, as the system exits the region (60%). The rain chance completely diminishes by late Thursday afternoon.

Rain totals will range from 0.5" to 1.0" for coastal and inland areas. Isolated areas in the mountains could easily exceed 2.0". I've posted a computer forecast of rain totals below.

Snow levels will drop as low as 5,500 feet on Wednesday. Some wet snow is possible on the tallest mountains in San Diego County, though it probably won't accumulate. Taller mountains to the north (above 8,000 feet) will get a few inches of wet snow.

Stay safe out there!

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED THURSDAY 11-14-2019

Computer forecasts continue to show a storm system diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and bringing rain to Southern California next week. I was a tad skeptical of this scenario. It's a challenging forecast, especially given our current weather pattern (dry and warm). Regardless, the computers are persistent, so it can't be neglected.

Given the current data, isolated showers will develop next Tuesday night (20%), then the best chance for rain will arrive Wednesday (40%). Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Lingering showers will exit the region Thursday afternoon (30%).

We are in a turbulent weather pattern, so I am certain that there will be some adjustments on the timing of this system. I'll keep watching it and bring more updates in the coming days.