San Diego - Last winter was cooler and wetter than average. This December-February should have below average temperatures and slightly above average precipitation. The southern stream will be weak, so we might not see any major rain events (exceeding 2"). Instead, I expect occasional moderate events through the winter. This could eat away at snow totals in the mountains, but colder air in the upper atmosphere could compensate a little.
Here were my forecast maps:Richmond - Last winter was cooler than average (cool Dec-Jan, warm in Feb) and drier than average (Dec was wet, Jan-Feb dry). Snow last year was *just* below average with a total of 10.7". I expect December-February temperatures to stay slightly above average and precipitation to hover near or slightly below average. There should be two to three cold blasts, though I don't think there will be any prolonged cold weather (over two weeks). After watching the storm track over the past couple months, I wouldn't be surprised if there will be a couple threats for a significant snow storm. Regardless, snow totals should stay near or below average at roughly 6 to 12".
Here is what actually happened:
Although I'm generally happy with my temperature forecast in San Diego and California, I had a significant miss on the precip outlook. In retrospect, I should have known better considering the lack of a strong southern stream.
I'm very happy about my Richmond outlook (I've had more practice with Mid-Atlantic weather).
I had a major bust with temperatures in the Northern Plains and New England. The handwriting was on the wall, in fact, I even talked about it during my discussion on the Arctic Oscillation and NAO.
Lastly, I wish I would have extended my heavy precip area down into Texas. I drew my precip outlook two or three times. Each time I seriously considered putting Texas into the "above average" category. Instead, I stuck with persistence. Anyway, I'm glad I was wrong...Texas needed that moisture!
