A couple storm systems will merge together and bring our area another chance for rain next Tuesday night into Wednesday. You can spot them on the satellite loop below. One is spinning off the Pacific Northwest coastline. Another is spiraling in the Pacific Ocean off the California coast.

Computer forecasts have been fairly consistent with this scenario and have both systems merging and bringing rain to Southern California Tuesday night. Periods of rain and isolated downpours/thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday. 0.5" to 1.0" of rainfall is possible. I've posted projected rain totals below. You can see that the Central Coast will get the lion's share of the rainfall.

This system is warm-cored, so snow levels will remain high. I'm not expecting any significant snow in local mountains.

I'll bring more updates as the system approaches. I'm also watching for another rain chance possibly arriving next weekend.



STATION                        PRECIP(IN)  ELEV.(FT)  LAST UPDATED

BIG BEAR RESORTS                   48          7100   0900 FRIDAY   
RUNNING SPRINGS                    48          6300   1400 FRIDAY
GREEN VALLEY LAKE               36-40          7000   1400 FRIDAY
YUCAIPA RIDGE/FOREST FALLS         36          9000   0900 FRIDAY
SNOW VALLEY                        36          6800   0900 FRIDAY
LAKE ARROWHEAD                  26-36          5600   0000 SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN HIGH RESORT            24-36          7000   0900 FRIDAY
ARROWBEAR                        33.5          6200   0000 FRIDAY
MT BALDY                           32          6300   0900 FRIDAY
BIG BEAR CITY                   20-30          6700   1400 FRIDAY
WRIGHTWOOD                      24-28          6400   0000 FRIDAY
ANGELUS OAKS                       27          5800   0900 FRIDAY
TWIN PEAKS                         26          5725   1400 FRIDAY
BLUE JAY (NEAR GOLF COURSE)        26          5200   2100 THURSDAY
GRASS VALLEY LAKE               24-26          5300   1700 FRIDAY
CEDAR PINES PARK                   24          5200   1400 FRIDAY
BARTON FLATS                       24          8900   0900 FRIDAY
BIRCH HILL (PALOMAR MTN)         22.5          5700   0000 SATURDAY
BIG BEAR LAKE                      22          6800   0000 FRIDAY
MT LAGUNA                          18          5920   1700 FRIDAY
CRESTLINE                          18          4700   1400 FRIDAY
IDYLLWILD                          20          5400   0900 FRIDAY
OAK GLEN                           12          4900   0900 FRIDAY
PHELAN                            8.5          4300   2200 FRIDAY
LYTLE CREEK                         7          3400   0900 FRIDAY
JULIAN                              6          4240   1700 FRIDAY
ANZA-BORREGO DRC                    4          2500   0900 FRIDAY
YUCAIPA                             3          3000   0000 FRIDAY
DESCANSO                            2          3300   1400 FRIDAY
PINE VALLEY                         2          3800   0000 FRIDAY
BEAUMONT                          1-2          2600   0000 FRIDAY
VICTORVILLE                       1-2          2900   0000 FRIDAY
APPLE VALLEY                     0.75          2700   1200 THURSDAY


I'll use this post to keep a three day running total of rainfall. Here are the totals as of 10 AM Saturday.

Alpine (ANEC1)2.62
Barona (BNAC1)2.03
Barret Lake (BRTC1)1.81
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)2.10
Birch Hill (IRCC1)0.84
Bonita (BNNC1)2.46
Bonsall (BOSC1)2.61
Brown Field (SDM)2.36
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)1.25
Deer Springs (DRGC1)2.09
Descanso (DENC1)2.99
Descanso RS (DSCC1)2.81
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)1.61
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)2.72
Echo Dell (ECDC1)3.01
El Cajon (LCKC1)2.26
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)2.26
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)1.87
Encinitas (ENCC1)2.68
Escondido (ESOC1)2.55
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)1.97
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)2.10
Goose Valley (GOSC1)2.16
Granite Hills (GRHC1)2.29
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)2.32
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)3.05
Julian (JLNC1)2.40
Julian (JULC1)2.39
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)1.96
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)2.94
La Mesa (LMSC1)2.13
Lake Hodges (HODC1)2.21
Las Flores (LSFC1)0.07
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)1.96
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)2.66
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)2.13
Mission Valley (BVDC1)2.46
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)2.38
Oceanside (OCNC1)2.80
Palomar Airport (CRQ)2.54
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)2.55
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)1.21
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)3.28
Point Loma (L13)1.61
Poway (PWYC1)2.22
Ramona (RMNC1)2.04
Ramona (RNM)2.21
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)1.86
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)2.60
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)2.20
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)2.50
San Miguel (MIGC1)1.13
San Pasqual (PSQC1)2.00
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)2.46
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)0.20
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)2.44
Solana Beach (SOB)0.00
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)2.65
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)2.77
Valley Center (VALC1)2.61
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)0.59
Warner Springs (WSGC1)1.98
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)2.03
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)2.17
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)2.28


There are no major changes to the forecast. Coastal and inland areas should get 2-3" of total rainfall (map below). Areas in the mountains will exceed 4-5" of precipitation (rain/snow combined). Local mountains will get several inches of snow (map below). Taller mountains to the north will get as much as 2 feet. Rain will exit the region Friday night.

As always, visit the National Weather Service for all the latest weather advisories and warnings in our area. Stay safe!

Wednesday Afternoon
Showers will approach from the north around noon today. This rainfall will persist into the early evening. Winds 15-25, up to 40 in the mountains. Snow levels 6,000-7,000.

Wednesday Night
Intermittent showers. Winds 5-15, up to 30 in the mountains. Snow levels 5,000 to 6,000 feet.

Thursday Morning
Rain with embedded downpours and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area starting at 5-6 AM. Winds 25-35, gusts up to 55 in the mountains. Snow levels 5,000 to 6,000 feet.

Thursday Afternoon
Rain with isolated downpours/thunderstorms move through the area. Showers will become more intermittent by the evening. Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 4,500 to 5,500 feet.

Thursday Night
Periods of rain, occasional downpour possible. Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Friday Morning 
Lingering showers. Winds 10-20, gusts up to 45 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,000 to 4,000 feet.

Friday Afternoon
Isolated showers.  Winds 15-25, gusts up to 50 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Friday Night 
Rain chance diminishes.  Winds 5-15, gusts up to 40 in the mountains. Snow levels 3,500 to 4,500 feet.

Computer projected rain totals from this storm system

Computer projected snow totals from this storm system


I've sifted through all the latest data this morning. A forecast like this is always challenging because the slightest shift in storm track can dramatically affect rain and snow totals. Computer forecasts have been a little inconsistent with the track of the core of this system. There has been some wobbling east and west, though this is to be expected. Regardless, not much has changed with the forecast - rain is likely for the upcoming week with significant snow in the mountains.

Showers could start as early as late morning Wednesday (40%), then rain is likely Wednesday afternoon/evening (100%). Periods of rain with embedded heavy downpours will then persist on-and-off through the day Thanksgiving (100%). It will be a raw and windy day. Wind gusts in the mountains will be intense.

Intermittent showers will linger on Friday (80%). The rain chance then diminishes Friday night.

Snow levels will start at 7,000 feet Wednesday morning, then steadily drop through the day to 5,000 feet Wednesday night. Snow levels will range from 4,000 to 5,000 Thursday, then fall as low as 3,000 feet on Friday. The tallest mountains in San Diego County could easily get a few inches. Peaks in the San Jacinto and San Bernardino mountains should exceed a foot of snow.

I've included the latest computer forecast for rain and snow totals. This system is still far away, so there will be some adjustments to this forecast in the coming days.