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WEATHER UPDATE: 7 AM TUESDAY 9/22/2015

There is a 20% chance for an isolated shower in the mountains today. Rain chances for coastal and inland areas are less than 20%. Looking at the extended computer forecasts, I don't see rain for at least another week.

WEATHER UPDATE: 8 PM MONDAY 9/21/2015

As expected, most of the heavy rainfall will miss us to the east (see the 84 hour forecast rainfall accumulations below). We still have a chance for isolated showers and possibly a quick downpour tonight, however, it won't amount to much. I'm expecting the Flood Watches to the east to be lifted later tonight due to the decreased threat for heavy rain.

Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for the next storm system to arrive for a significant rainfall. Luckily, we have El Nino conditions, so it might come in a week or two!

8 PM Monday to 10 AM Tuesday
Isolated showers and maybe a downpour are possible. (40%)

10 AM to 5 PM Tuesday
Isolated showers possible. (30%)

Tuesday Night
Patchy coastal fog/drizzle.


WEATHER UPDATE: 10 AM MONDAY 9/21/2015

Clouds have moved into our skies this morning, which is welcomed after yesterday's insane heat! These clouds are from showers down in Mexico. Those showers will generally stay south of our area and will dissipate over the next few hours. There is a slight chance that some of those showers could clip the far southern areas of San Diego County.

Computer forecasts are still showing the bulk of the rain missing us to the east. In fact, the latest data this morning is downplaying the rain potential even more.

Although a renegade shower could pop up this afternoon, I'm expecting the best chances for rain to arrive this evening/tonight through early tomorrow - roughly 8 PM tonight to 2 PM Tuesday. A few showers and isolated downpours will be possible during this time period. Don't be surprised if you hear a rumble or two of thunder. Skies will begin to clear out by Tuesday evening.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: 9 PM SUNDAY 9/20/2015

I think this animation sums it up nicely. It shows the accumulated rainfall for the next 84 hours. The heaviest rain is still expected to miss us to the east. Isolated showers/downpours are possible Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The chance for isolated showers persists into Tuesday.

Heavier rains will be possible in the mountains and eastward, where a Flood Watch is in effect. Be sure to check with the National Weather Service for the latest: www.weather.gov.


SAN DIEGO COUNTY HIGH TEMPERATURES: SUNDAY 9/20/2015

 : ID :      STATION           ELEV : HIGH / LOW /  PCPN / SNODEP
 :                             FEET                        INCHES
 :
 :        ...COASTAL AREAS...
 :
 YBLC1:      YORBA LINDA        350 :  105 /  69 /  0.00 /
 FUL  :      FULLERTON AIRPORT   96 :  104 /  69 /  0.00 /
 ANAC1:    * ANAHEIM            335 :  103 /  70 /  0.00 /
 STAC1:      SANTA ANA          135 :  104 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDHTB:      HUNTINGTON BEACH     5 :   91 /  66 /  0.00 /
 SNA  :      JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT  55 :   98 /  70 /  0.00 /
 3L3  :    * NEWPORT BEACH       10 :   88 /  69 /  0.00 /
 LAGC1:      LAGUNA BEACH        35 :   96 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDDPC:      DANA POINT         305 :   88 /  67 /  0.00 /
 SDFRH:      LAKE FOREST        970 :  101 /  69 /  0.00 /
 L34  :      OCEANSIDE HARBOR    10 :   82 /  68 /  0.00 /
 OKB  :      OCEANSIDE AIRPORT   28 :   94 /  66 /  0.00 /
 SDVIS:      VISTA              330 :   98 /  65 /  0.00 /
 CRQ  :      CARLSBAD AIRPORT   328 :   89 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDETS:      ENCINITAS          270 :    M /   M /  0.00 /
 SOL  :      SOLANA BEACH        75 :   84 /  69 /  0.00 /
 DMRC1:    * DEL MAR            100 :   79 /  70 /  0.00 /
 NKX  :      MIRAMAR            477 :    M /  73 /  0.00 /
 MYF  :      MONTGOMERY FIELD   420 :   99 /  72 /  0.00 /
 SAN  :      SAN DIEGO           15 :   92 /  73 /  0.00 /
 L13  :      CABRILLO NATL MNMT 364 :    M /   M /     M /
 SDNAC:      NATIONAL CITY       25 :   97 /  72 /  0.00 /
 CVAC1:    * CHULA VISTA         56 :   97 /  69 /  0.00 /
 NRS  :      IMPERIAL BEACH      23 :   91 /  68 /  0.00 /
 SDM  :      BROWN FIELD        525 :   99 /  68 /  0.00 /
 :
 :        ...INLAND AREAS...
 :
 ONT  :      ONTARIO            943 :  104 /  70 /  0.00 /
 CNO  :      CHINO              652 :  107 /  66 /  0.00 /
 SDALO:      RANCHO CUCAMONGA  1940 :  101 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDSBO:      SAN BERNARDINO    1050 :  105 /  69 /  0.00 /
 AJO  :      CORONA             531 :  104 /  61 /  0.00 /
 RAL  :      RIVERSIDE AIRPORT  818 :  106 /  70 /  0.00 /
 UCRC1:      RIVERSIDE          986 :  107 /  66 /  0.00 /
 RIV  :      RIVERSIDE MARCH   1542 :  102 /  63 /  0.00 /
 BUO  :      BEAUMONT          2680 :   96 /  65 /  0.00 /
 EORC1:    * ELSINORE          1285 :  105 /  67 /  0.00 /
 HEMC1:    * HEMET             1811 :  101 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDTEC:      TEMECULA          1020 :  103 /  67 /  0.00 /
 SDFBK:      FALLBROOK          698 :  104 /  68 /  0.00 /
 SDSMP:      SAN MARCOS         630 :  101 /  69 /  0.00 /
 ESCC1:      ESCONDIDO          645 :  100 /  69 /  0.00 /
 PSQC1:      SAN PASQUAL VALLEY 255 :  107 /  64 /  0.00 /
 RNM  :      RAMONA AIRPORT    1393 :  102 /  64 /  0.00 /
 SGX  :      RANCHO BERNARDO    690 :   98 /  69 /  0.00 /
 POWC1:    * POWAY              648 :  101 /  68 /  0.00 /
 ALPC1:      ALPINE            1695 :  100 /  69 /  0.00 /
 SDLAM:      LA MESA            500 :  100 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDSNL:      SANTEE             435 :  104 /  68 /  0.00 /
 ELJC1:    * EL CAJON           405 :  105 /  70 /  0.00 /
 SDRSC:      RANCHO SAN DIEGO   400 :  103 /  67 /  0.00 /
 LMGC1:      LEMON GROVE        427 :  101 /  70 /  0.00 /
 :
 :        ...MOUNTAIN AREAS...
 :
 ECSC1:      EL CARISO         2730 :   98 /  74 /  0.00 / 
 WRIC1:      WRIGHTWOOD        5980 :   79 /  57 /  0.00 / 
 SDARN:      LAKE ARROWHEAD    5180 :   91 /  54 /  0.00 / 
 BBLC1:    * BIG BEAR LAKE     6768 :   78 /  44 /  0.00 / 
 SDBDN:      BALDWIN LAKE      6770 :   76 /  37 /  0.00 /
 SDAOK:      ANGELUS OAKS      5800 :   83 /  58 /  0.00 /
 SDPCV:      PINE COVE         6299 :   82 /  65 /  0.00 /
 IDYC1:      IDYLLWILD         5380 :   88 /  54 /  0.00 / 
 NZAC1:      ANZA              3939 :   91 /  58 /  0.00 / 
 PYNC1:      PINYON PINES      4060 :   92 /  61 /  0.00 / 
 PLRC1:    * PALOMAR MOUNTAIN  5550 :   85 /  65 /  0.00 / 
 JULC1:      JULIAN            4240 :   86 /  61 /  0.00 / 
 MLNC1:    * MOUNT LAGUNA      5920 :   79 /  60 /  0.00 / 
 CZZ  :    * CAMPO COOP        2615 :   94 /  57 /  0.00 / 
 :
 :        ...DESERT AREAS...
 :
 HESC1:    * HESPERIA          3055 :   96 /  63 /  0.00 / 
 APLC1:      APPLE VALLEY      2780 :    M /   M /     M / 
 PSP  :      PALM SPRINGS       425 :  106 /  79 /  0.00 / 
 IDOC1:      INDIO              -21 :  104 /  80 /  0.00 / 
 TRM  :      THERMAL           -117 :  106 /  69 /  0.00 / 
 BROC1:      BORREGO            805 :  101 /  72 /  0.00 / 
 OCWC1:      OCOTILLO WELLS     390 :  102 /  76 /  0.00 / 
 TYEC1:      JOSHUA TREE N.P.  1975 :   99 /  69 /  0.00 / 
 BLH  :      BLYTHE             397 :  106 /  75 /  0.00 /
 IPL  :      IMPERIAL           -56 :  106 /  78 /  0.00 /

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SUNDAY 9/20/2015

Summary
This morning's data shows a slightly different scenario with this storm system. They have slowed things down, however, it still looks like the brunt of the storm will miss us to the east.

Timing 
Sunday: Mostly dry and sunny. An isolated shower could pop up in the evening/overnight period (20%).
Monday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms/downpours are possible, especially in the late afternoon and evening. The rain chance lingers into the night (60%).
Tuesday: Isolated showers/downpours are still possible, especially early in the day (40%).

Discussion
The latest satellite imagery shows occasionally robust convection around the center of the storm, though it's still fairly disorganized.


Computer forecast tracks move the center of the storm right along the southeast California and Arizona state line.


This storm will be moving into cooler water and a sheared environment, so I don't expect it to strengthen. The computers agree.


The system is far enough away that it shouldn't affect our weather today. In fact, it will be sunny and hot, which is typical ahead of a tropical system (subsidence). We'll have some cirrus clouds move in later in the day...it could make for a nice sunset!


You can see from the computer forecast 48 hour rain totals that the torrential rains will miss us to the east. Regardless, we still have the chance for a couple heavy downpours (fingers crossed).


FORECAST

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

COAST INLAND

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