This morning's data shows a slightly different scenario with this storm system. They have slowed things down, however, it still looks like the brunt of the storm will miss us to the east.
Timing
Sunday: Mostly dry and sunny. An isolated shower could pop up in the evening/overnight period (20%).
Monday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms/downpours are possible, especially in the late afternoon and evening. The rain chance lingers into the night (60%).
Tuesday: Isolated showers/downpours are still possible, especially early in the day (40%).
Discussion
The latest satellite imagery shows occasionally robust convection around the center of the storm, though it's still fairly disorganized.
Computer forecast tracks move the center of the storm right along the southeast California and Arizona state line.
This storm will be moving into cooler water and a sheared environment, so I don't expect it to strengthen. The computers agree.
The system is far enough away that it shouldn't affect our weather today. In fact, it will be sunny and hot, which is typical ahead of a tropical system (subsidence). We'll have some cirrus clouds move in later in the day...it could make for a nice sunset!
You can see from the computer forecast 48 hour rain totals that the torrential rains will miss us to the east. Regardless, we still have the chance for a couple heavy downpours (fingers crossed).
No comments:
Post a Comment