WEATHER UPDATE ON MID-ATLANTIC SNOW - FRIDAY AFTERNOON

The only change from last night's data is a slight shift south, which has been the progressive trend over the past few days. It's definitely something to watch over the next 24 hours.

This storm was a beast along the West Coast. It dumped significant snow in the mountains of Southern California. There is no reason to believe it won't do the same for parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland.

I don't have time to draw a detailed map, but I'm liking the 12Z NAM solution with this storm. I might shift the accumulations south by about 10 miles. That would put Richmond in the 3 to 6" range.

Remember, this is just an educated guess. I would encourage you to follow meteorologist in your region for more detailed information on this potentially dangerous storm. I'll try and have another update tonight when I get home.

MID-ATLANTIC SNOW - THURSDAY NIGHT UPDATE

There are little changes in the latest data. The storm has slowed down and shifted slightly south. I decided to post the last five runs of the ECMWF ensemble mean (1000-500 MB thickness and MSLP). You will notice the trend of a slower and stronger storm. However, the model has not trended cooler. If fact, you can see in the latest run (posted below), the ensemble mean keeps temps in the mid to lower 30s in Central Virginia Sunday evening.

This is a potent storm and it can "make" its' own cool air by pulling it down from aloft via heavy precipitation. However, these marginal temps will eat away from the totals. It is also important to watch mid-level temperatures (5,000 to 10,000 feet) because a warm layer could produce sleet for a couple hours. This could also eat away from the accumulations. Nonetheless, this is a massive storm and it will produce some impressive snow totals.

I'm still sticking with my snow map posted earlier today. I hope to have another update tomorrow.