WEATHER UPDATE ON MID-ATLANTIC SNOW - SATURDAY AFTERNOON

After looking at the latest data, I still like the NAM solution to this event. It generally matches what the ECMWF has been showing all along. With that said, the maps below represent a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio. Parts of this event will have a lower ratio due to wet snow, warm ground temperatures and the possibility of some sleet. I would take off a couple inches from the NAM totals for Central and Eastern Virginia.

I'm keeping with my 3 to 6" forecast for Richmond. Isolated areas in Central Virginia will get more.

RPM also shows a plausible solution, though I'm sad that the 12Z data is unavailable. The 15Z data shows an explosion of 6 to 8" of snow in Central Virginia. This is probably caused by the rapid strengthening of the storm as it moves off the coast. Precipitation rates will increase and bring colder air down from aloft. 

The GFS continues to change its' solution each run. The key here is the strength of the storm. GFS never has the central pressure dropping below 1000 MB unlike the NAM and ECMWF, which have the pressure dropping to 996 MB. A weaker storm means weaker cold air advection - both horizontally and vertically.

I'm not buying this solution. This storm "over-achieved" what the models predicted here along the West Coast, so the same could occur farther east. I think it's better to be prepared for a snow event than to be surprised Monday morning with 6" of snow on the ground. Worst case scenario...GFS is right and I'm eating crow Monday morning.