The latest data is significantly different than earlier today. The NAM still shows the most plausible precip field. It shows the persistent band of snow reaching all the way to the coast. However, it has shifted the snow band about 50 miles south. Although I anticipated a southerly trend, this is again too much.
I would shift this map up about 20 miles. I would also take a couple inches off the totals in Central Virginia. I'm not expecting a 10:1 snow-to-rain ratio for the entire event (warm ground and surface temps and the possibility of some sleet).
I want to also mention that I think it's odd how the NAM/GFS MOS data keep dew points near 30 all day tomorrow, yet when it starts raining, they keep surface temps in the lower 40s. That's nonsense! Temps will rapidly fall at the onset of precipitation from evaporative cooling. Dew points tonight are in the mid 20s, so the models are already wrong...just food for thought.
I might as well stick with my 3 to 6" forecast in the Richmond metro area. Isolated areas will pick up more.
RPM also shifted south.
GFS is either going to be hailed as the best model ever or it's going to be considered the ultimate bust machine. This model stands alone with its' forecast in Central Virginia...1" or less. Wow! I still can't think of a reason why the snow band would completely dissipate as the storm system strengthens. It just doesn't make sense. If the GFS is right, I will gladly eat crow on Monday. Again, I would rather get people prepared for this storm than downplay it.
No comments:
Post a Comment