NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SUNDAY 1-29-2017

Clear and mild weather persists this weekend as high pressure continues to hover over Southern California. There is a large and weakening storm system in the Pacific. You can spot it in the upper left of the satellite loop below. This system will bring a slight chance for some showers on Friday, though the bulk of the rain will miss us to the north.

Afterwards, almost every long range computer forecast keeps most of California dry and warm (you can spot the red bubble on the second map below). The computers have been consistent with this scenario, so my confidence is high in the forecast. It's plausible that we won't see rain through the second week of February...maybe longer. As always, a renegade system could sneak in underneath this ridge. I'll continue to monitor the data and keep you posted.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: THURSDAY 1-19-2017 TO TUESDAY1-24-2017

The rain is slowly diminishing across the area. Here are the 6 day rain totals updated at 4 PM Tuesday, 1-24-2017. It should remain sunny and dry for the next several days. We could possibly see rain return around February 1-2.

Alpine (ANEC1)	5.95
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)	5.58
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	10.52
Bonsall (BOSC1)	6.15
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)	3.43
Camp Pendleton (NFG)	3.87
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	4.23
Descanso (DENC1)	8.67
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	9.19
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	5.21
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	6.96
El Cajon (LCKC1)	4.50
Escondido (ESOC1)	5.90
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)	2.54
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	5.03
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	4.92
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	5.61
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	9.02
Julian (JLNC1)	9.56
Julian (JULC1)	10.43
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	3.25
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	4.94
Lake Murray (MUYC1)	4.06
Las Flores (LSFC1)	3.26
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)	1.97
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	4.56
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	3.13
Montgomery Field (MYF)	3.06
Oceanside (OKB)	2.86
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)	6.24
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	2.58
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	2.75
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	8.94
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	9.59
Point Loma (L13)	2.51
Puente San Jose (PSJB1)	0.00
Ramona (RMNC1)	5.06
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	4.38
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)	5.12
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	5.58
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	3.49
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)	4.75
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	2.64
San Miguel (MIGC1)	3.33
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	4.35
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	3.67
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	7.05
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	6.80
Valley Center (VALC1)	5.46
Valley Center (VLCC1)	5.34
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	7.35
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	5.07
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	3.44
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)	6.87
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	6.06

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED MONDAY 1-23-2017

Isolated showers will linger tonight and through most of Tuesday. Most areas should be dry by Tuesday evening. Snow levels will hover around 4,000 feet. Here are the forecast accumulations:

1 to 4" from 4,000 feet to 5,000 feet.
4 to 8" from 5,000 feet to 6,000 feet
8"+ above 6,000 feet

After Tuesday, we are headed towards an extended period of dry weather. Cold mornings and sunny afternoons will persist into the weekend. You can spot the dominant weather feature on the map below.

There are indications that this pattern could break down around February 1-2 with rain returning to the area. I'll keep you posted.

SNOW FORECAST SAN DIEGO COUNTY: SUNDAY 1-22-2017

Here are is a computer forecast (NAM 10:1 ratio) for snow totals with this system. With snow levels dropping as low as 4,000 feet by Monday, I'm still expecting Cuyamaca and Laguna to get a few inches of snow as well.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED WEDNESDAY 1-18-2017

A series of storm systems will affect all of Southern California over the next several days. I'll try and break it down into a timeline:

Thursday
Scattered showers are likely with isolated downpours possible. Winds 15-25 mph, 50 mph gusts in the mountains.
AM snow levels: ~7,000 feet
PM snow levels: ~6,000 feet

Friday into early Saturday
Rain likely, heavy at times. This system is more potent, so rain totals will be higher. In addition, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Winds 15-30 mph, 60 mph gusts in the mountains.
AM snow levels: ~6,000 feet
PM snow levels: ~5,000 feet

Sunday
Another potent system headed this way. Rain is likely with isolated downpours, possibly a thunderstorm. Winds 10-20 mph, 50 mph gusts in the mountains.
AM snow levels: ~11,000 feet
PM snow levels: ~7,000 feet (steadily dropping)

Monday into Tuesday
Scattered showers. This will be the coolest system of the four. Snow levels could dip down to 4,000 feet. Winds 15-30 mph, 60 mph gusts in the mountains.

By the end of all of this, rain totals could range from 3 to 6" with significantly higher amounts expected in the mountains. The 5 day computer forecast is posted below.

I'll continue to bring updates throughout the event!

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SATURDAY 1-14-2016

The unsettled weather pattern will persist for at least another two weeks. Computer forecasts continue to show a cool and wet anomaly over the entire Western United States (shown below). This means we will have several chances for rain in the coming days. In addition, temperatures will generally remain below normal.

The first system arrives Thursday and it will immediately be followed by more rain on Friday. In fact, it's looking like the rain chance will linger into next weekend as well. It's still too early to pinpoint the exact timing of these systems, but if you are going to be outdoors, I'd plan accordingly.

SAN DIEGO 2016 RECAP: RAINFALL & TEMPERATURES

2016 was a warm year with overall temperatures at 2.7 above average. Total rainfall was at 10.2" for the year, which is just a hair below average.

	Average Temperature	Departure From Normal	Total Rainfall	Departure From Normal
Jan	58.5	1.4	3.21	1.23
Feb	63.9	6	0.05	-2.22
Mar	62.7	3.3	0.76	-1.05
Apr	65.5	3.8	0.55	-0.23
May	65	1	0.44	0.32
Jun	68.9	2.5	0	-0.07
Jul	70.9	0.9	0	-0.03
Aug	72.8	1.2	0	-0.02
Sep	72	1.4	0.32	0.17
Oct	70.6	3.9	0.07	-0.5
Nov	65.8	4.5	0.61	-0.4
Dec	58.9	2.4	4.22	2.69
Total	66.3	2.7	10.2	0.0

Most of the Southern California and the Southwest U.S. were below normal for rainfall, though Northern California and Southern Nevada were above normal. Temperatures were significantly above normal across the entire Southwest.

Across the United States:

The Northern Midwest, Texas and parts of the Mid Atlantic saw record rainfall. It was warmer than normal across the entire country, with parts of Georgia and Arizona seeing record heat.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: THURSDAY 1-12-2016 TO FRIDAY 1-13-2016

Location	Inches
Alpine (ANEC1)	1.08
Barona (BNAC1)	1.17
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	1.63
Bonsall (BOSC1)	0.59
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)	1.17
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)	1.11
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	0.83
Descanso (DENC1)	0.98
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	1.11
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	0.66
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	1.12
El Cajon (LCKC1)	0.99
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)	0.98
Encinitas (ENCC1)	0.83
Escondido (ESOC1)	0.78
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	1.01
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	0.85
Granite Hills (GRHC1)	1.16
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	0.96
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	1.3
Julian (JLNC1)	1.09
Julian (JULC1)	1.16
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	0.82
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	1.07
La Mesa (LMSC1)	0.88
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	0.63
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.62
Marron Valley (MAVC1)	0.63
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)	1.35
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	1.02
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	1.12
Oceanside (OCNC1)	0.87
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)	1.26
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	0.67
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	0.61
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	1.44
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	1.15
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	1.28
Point Loma (L13)	0.57
Potrero (PRCC1)	0.85
Poway (PWYC1)	1.14
Ramona (RMNC1)	1.05
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	0.48
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)	1.14
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	0.75
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	0.86
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)	0.95
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	0.81
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	0.66
San Ysidro (YSDC1)	1.18
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	1.02
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	0.96
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	1.03
Tijuana Estuary (TJEC1)	1.45
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	0.08
Valley Center (VLCC1)	0.86
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	1.01
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	0.99
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	0.6
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	0.7

CALIFORNIA RAIN TOTALS: 1-5-2017 TO 1-12-2017

Here are the total from Thursday, January 5 to Thursday January 12.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: WEDNESDAY 1-11-2017

Alpine (ANEC1)	0.30
Barona (BNAC1)	0.12
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)	0.20
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	0.69
Bonsall (BOSC1)	0.47
Brown Field (SDM)	0.05
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)	0.27
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)	0.55
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	0.54
Descanso (DENC1)	0.39
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	0.44
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	0.10
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	0.55
Escondido (ESOC1)	0.19
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)	0.12
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	0.18
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	0.22
Granite Hills (GRHC1)	0.12
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	0.27
Julian (JLNC1)	0.55
Julian (JULC1)	0.55
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	0.15
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	0.44
La Mesa (LMSC1)	0.14
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	0.39
Lake Murray (MUYC1)	0.08
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.71
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)	0.05
Marron Valley (MAVC1)	0.04
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)	0.59
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	0.36
Miramar Marine Corps Stn (NKX)	0.12
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	0.16
Montgomery Field (MYF)	0.18
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	0.25
Oceanside (OKB)	0.25
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	0.31
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	0.32
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	0.73
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	0.74
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	0.86
Point Loma (L13)	0.08
Potrero (PRCC1)	0.19
Poway (PWYC1)	0.14
Puente San Jose (PSJB1)	0.00
Ramona (RMNC1)	0.15
Ramona (RNM)	0.15
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	0.23
Red Gate Repeater (RGPC1)	0.39
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	0.20
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	0.08
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)	0.23
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	0.14
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	0.24
San Miguel (MIGC1)	0.12
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	0.15
San Ysidro (YSDC1)	0.04
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	0.12
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	0.40
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	0.40
Tijuana Estuary (TJEC1)	0.08
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	0.08
Valley Center (VALC1)	0.30
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	0.44
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	0.16
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	0.30
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	0.42

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED TUESDAY 1-10-2016

The next storm system is diving out of the North Pacific towards California (image below). This will bring rain to Southern California on Wednesday, Thursday and possibly Friday.

Intermittent showers will be possible through the day on Wednesday. More substantial rain with isolated downpours will develop on Thursday as the core of the system moves closer.

Isolated showers will linger into Friday, though the heaviest rain will be gone.

Snow levels in San Diego County will be above 9,000 feet Wednesday, then drop to 6,000 feet Wednesday, and then as low as 4,000 feet on Friday.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: MONDAY 1-9-2016

Alpine (ANEC1)	0.31
Barret Lake (BRTC1)	0.05
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)	0.09
Bonita (BTAC1)	0.11
Bonsall (BOSC1)	0.32
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)	0.66
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	0.33
Descanso (DENC1)	0.35
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	0.43
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	0.03
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	0.43
Echo Dell (ECDC1)	0.32
El Cajon (LCKC1)	0.20
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)	0.31
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)	0.25
Escondido (ESOC1)	0.32
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)	0.12
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	0.18
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	0.29
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	0.19
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)	0.35
Julian (JLNC1)	0.42
Julian (JULC1)	0.46
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	0.20
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	0.45
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	0.38
Lake Murray (MUYC1)	0.20
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.43
Marron Valley (MAVC1)	0.04
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	0.24
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	0.21
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	0.31
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	0.27
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	0.70
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	0.60
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	0.57
Point Loma (L13)	0.12
Potrero (PRCC1)	0.07
Poway (PWYC1)	0.19
Ramona (RMNC1)	0.22
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	0.22
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	0.38
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	0.19
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	0.26
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	0.24
San Miguel (MIGC1)	0.13
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	0.30
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)	0.31
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	0.20
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	0.25
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	0.04
Valley Center (VALC1)	0.30
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	0.45
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	0.26
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)	0.27
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	0.24

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SATURDAY 1-7-2017

A large storm system is currently churning in the Pacific, which is seen in the satellite loop below. This system is tapping into a lot of moisture from the Tropics, which is seen in the second loop (sometimes called an Atmospheric River). This type of scenario results in major rain events for the West Coast. Most of the moisture will stay north of our area, where Central and Northern California will see large amounts of rain. In addition, the Sierra's will see a substantial amount of snow (last image).

Closer to home, we should see some of this moisture creep into Southern California by Monday, where rain is looking likely. Showers and isolated downpours will be possible through the day. We should then dry out by Tuesday. Another chance for rain could arrive later in the week...maybe Thursday.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: THURSDAY 1-5-2016

Alpine (ANEC1)	0.31
Barrett Junction (BAJC1)	0.30
Birch Hill (IRCC1)	0.92
Bonita (BTAC1)	0.18
Bonsall (BOSC1)	0.44
Brown Field (SDM)	0.19
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)	0.28
Camp Pendleton (NFG)	0.36
Deer Springs (DRGC1)	0.38
Descanso (DENC1)	0.35
Descanso RS (DSCC1)	0.35
Dulzura Summit (DULC1)	0.20
Eastern Tanks (ETKC1)	0.75
Echo Dell (ECDC1)	0.25
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)	0.27
Encinitas (ENCC1)	0.18
Escondido (ESOC1)	0.35
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)	0.20
Goose Valley (GOSC1)	0.31
Granite Hills (GRHC1)	0.15
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)	0.31
Julian (JLNC1)	0.61
Julian (JULC1)	0.75
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)	0.05
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)	0.57
La Mesa (LMSC1)	0.08
Lake Hodges (HODC1)	0.37
Lake Murray (MUYC1)	0.12
Las Flores (LSFC1)	0.25
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)	0.16
Marron Valley (MAVC1)	0.16
MCOLF - Red Beach (NXF)	0.03
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)	0.60
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)	0.35
Miramar Marine Corps Stn (NKX)	0.26
Mission Valley (BVDC1)	0.40
Montgomery Field (MYF)	0.14
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)	0.52
North Island NAS (NZY)	0.15
Oceanside (OCNC1)	0.36
Oceanside (OKB)	0.26
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)	0.38
Palomar Airport (CRQ)	0.17
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)	0.13
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)	1.15
Pine Hills (PIHC1)	0.70
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)	0.64
Point Loma (L13)	0.18
Potrero (PRCC1)	0.25
Puente San Jose (PSJB1)	0.00
Ramona (RNM)	0.16
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)	0.24
Rincon Springs (RINC1)	0.19
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)	0.18
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)	0.21
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)	0.18
San Miguel (MIGC1)	0.14
San Pasqual (PSQC1)	0.25
San Ysidro (YSDC1)	0.08
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)	0.60
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)	0.27
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)	0.18
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)	0.37
Tijuana Estuary (TJEC1)	0.12
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)	0.08
Valley Center (VALC1)	0.18
Valley Center (VLCC1)	0.15
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)	0.73
Warner Springs (WSGC1)	0.11
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)	0.25
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)	0.47
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)	0.31