NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED SUNDAY 11-21-2021

I've been extremely hesitant to post an update about this next storm system. It is currently cut off from the flow of the upper atmosphere, which makes it difficult to forecast. As expected, the computer forecasts have been erratic to say the least. 

You can see the storm spinning off the coast of the Baja in the satellite loop below. Another system in the Gulf of Alaska will finally push this system in our direction for the start of the workweek. 

We have a slim chance (20%) for an isolated shower on Tuesday as this system passes. Rain chances are a tad higher in the mountains (30%). Rain totals will be a quarter inch or less. I've posted the computer projected rain totals below.

The rain chance exits Tuesday night and the rest of the week will remain dry.

 

SAN DIEGO RAIN OUTLOOK: UPDATED SUNDAY 11-14-2021

The Southern California rain outlook is looking pretty dismal for the next several days. In fact, as La Nina (cool ocean current) dominates the equatorial Pacific, this might be the long term trend for most of this winter. 

The map below shows a computer projection for rain totals for the next ten days. You can see that most of the southwest US is rain-free. This includes the entire southern two thirds of California.

Here are the water temperature anomalies, where I circled the La Nina. It's not too strong, but is enough to have some impact in our area. The water below the surface is also cool, which means that this will persist for at least another couple months.

La Nina typically brings cool and dry conditions to Southern California. I've included two maps below that show the temperature and rainfall anomalies during La Nina years. 

Although there are exceptions to the rule, more than likely rainfall will stay below average this winter. Temperatures will stay near or slightly below average (granted, it's been very warm lately!). 

Hopefully La Nina breaks down before the end of the rain season. Then we could see a general shift in the weather pattern.

Precipitation anomalies during La Nina years

Temperature anomalies during La Nina years