SAN DIEGO RAIN & SNOW TOTALS: WEDNESDAY 12/31/2014

Here are the rain totals. I've also posted the snow totals below. Enjoy, and Happy New Year!

OCEANSIDE                        0.95         
CARLSBAD                         0.56        
CARLSBAD AIRPORT                 0.54        
LAS FLORES RAWS                  0.51        
BROWN FIELD                      0.40        
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL              0.38        
SAN ONOFRE                       0.28        
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE              0.28         
ENCINITAS                        0.27        
SOLANA BEACH                     0.18          
FASHION VALLEY                   0.14         
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS                 0.13        
POINT LOMA                       0.10        
SAN YSIDRO                       0.08         
SMUGGLERS GULCH                  0.08         
TIJUANA ESTUARY                  0.07         
LINDBERGH FIELD                  0.05         
MONTGOMERY FIELD                 0.02        

FALLBROOK                        1.28     
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS             1.26         
DEER SPRINGS                     0.84        
VALLEY CENTER                    0.81        
ESCONDIDO                        0.77         
BONSALL CRS                      0.75         
RINCON SPRINGS                   0.68         
COUSER CANYON                    0.67         
COLE GRADE RD                    0.64         
RAMONA                           0.57        
LAKE WOHLFORD                    0.55        
VALLEY CENTER RAWS               0.55        
BARONA                           0.48        
DULZURA SUMMIT                   0.47        
RANCHO BERNARDO                  0.46         
RAMONA AIRPORT                   0.43        
SANTEE                           0.40         
FLINN SPRINGS                    0.38         
LOS COCHES CREEK                 0.38         
LAKE MURRAY                      0.36         
LA MESA                          0.35         
SAN MIGUEL RAWS                  0.32         
GRANITE HILLS                    0.30         
HARBISON CANYON                  0.28        
POWAY                            0.27         
MIRAMAR LAKE                     0.15         
SANDIA CK RD                     0.12         
PARADISE CREEK                   0.08         

SNOWFALL TOTALS
 
 POTRERO...................3 INCHES AS OF 1030 AM TODAY
 WRIGHTWOOD................5 INCHES AS OF 900 AM TODAY
 PHELAN....................2 INCHES AS OF 900 AM TODAY
 TEMECULA..................2 INCHES AS OF 900 AM TODAY
 LAKE ELSINORE...........1-2 INCHES AS OF 900 AM TODAY
 BIG BEAR LAKE............12 INCHES AS OF 830 AM TODAY
 CAMPO...................2.5 INCHES AS OF 830 AM TODAY
 MOUNT LAGUNA..............7 INCHES AS OF 800 AM TODAY
 PALOMAR OBSERVATORY......12 INCHES AS OF 745 AM TODAY      
 EL CARISO VILLAGE........10 INCHES AS OF 745 AM TODAY
 JULIAN....................9 INCHES AS OF 800 AM TODAY
 LAKE ARROWHEAD..........5-6 INCHES AS OF 740 AM TODAY
 FRENCH VALLEY.........2-2.5 INCHES AS OF 730 AM TODAY
 PIONEERTOWN...............3 INCHES AS OF 730 AM TODAY
 PINE VALLEY...............3 INCHES AS OF 715 AM TODAY
 RANCHITA..................6 INCHES AS OF 500 AM TODAY
 HORSETHIEF CYN
 (8 NW LAKE ELSINORE)......6 INCHES AS OF 400 AM TODAY
 NEAR IDYLLWILD............8 INCHES AS OF 430 AM TODAY

PHOTOS OF SNOW: MOUNT LAGUNA WEDNESDAY 12/31/2014

Here's an image from Laguna today courtesy of UCSD webcam system. Pretty cool! There is one more batch of precipitation moving through the area, then we will be dry by the late afternoon. Get ready for the cold tonight! I'll post rain and snow totals in a few hours.

And later in the day

From High Point

WEATHER UPDATE: 8 PM MONDAY 12/29/2014

OK, weather rapid fire!

An isolated passing shower is possible Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, the day will start mainly dry.

Widely scattered showers and isolated downpours will then overspread the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night and will persist until Wednesday afternoon.

The atmosphere will also be unstable enough to support a thunderstorm or two.

Rain totals will range from 0.1" to 0.75" along the coast and inland. Totals will depend heavily on whether you see a downpour/thunderstorm or not.

Snow levels will start off at 5,000 feet on Tuesday. They will then drop to 2,000 to 3,000 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday. Isolated areas could briefly see snow levels as low as 1,000 feet.

Given a saturated atmosphere, temperatures generally need to be around 35°F to see snowfall. In other words, the chances for snow along the coast or inland are slim to none. Temperatures will be too warm.

Speaking of temperatures, it's going to be cold Wednesday and Thursday nights! Overnight lows inland will drop to 32-35°F. Coastal areas will be 38-42°F.

I've posted a forecast snow accumulation map below. You can see that some of the higher peaks to the east like Cuyamaca and Laguna could receive 4-8". Granted, the ground is fairly warm, so a lot of it will initially melt.

SAN DIEGO NEXT RAIN CHANCE: UPDATED FRI 12/26/2014

Bottom line:

There is a chance for showers and isolated downpours Tuesday night into Wednesday (12/30 to 12/31). This will be a cold system, so snow levels could drop as low as 2000-3000 feet. Right now it looks like moisture availability will be limited, so rain/snow amounts will only be light/moderate.

Technical:

We are in a unique pattern where the storm track is highly amplified. It goes all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska and straight down into the West Coast and Rockies. Our next storm system will be taking this track. You can spot it on the 500 mb maps below.

All computer forecasts have this system moving into our area, so there is high confidence that this will happen. However, whenever a storm takes a track like this, it is tough to pick up any moisture. This could significantly inhibit rainfall/snowfall totals.

With the core of the system passing overhead on Wednesday, the atmosphere will become unstable. This will bring convection, which means we could see isolated downpours, possibly even a rumble or two of thunder. The air aloft will be so cold, I can't rule out some small hail as well.

Snow levels will continue to drop as this system approaches. By Wednesday, snow levels will drop as low as 2,000-3,000 feet. 

Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast, so I wouldn't get too excited yet. A lot of times storm systems like this can be a lot of bark with little bite. It will all depend on the track of this system. If it is deeper and more westerly, then it will tap into more moisture. However, right now there is no data supporting a westerly track.

One thing is certain with this storm: it will turn colder 12/31 into 1/1.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: THU 12/25/2014

Here are the rain totals from today. I'll have an update tomorrow about our next chance for rain.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: 1:00 PM WED 12/24/2014

A powerful cold front will pass the area tonight and bring a brief chance of rain to San Diego. As I talked about in my previous blog past, the brunt of this system will miss us to the east. In addition, there is very limited moisture. Regardless, there will be *just* enough instability in the atmosphere to support convection.

Bottom line: there is a chance for showers and/or isolated downpours from 9 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow.

Another shot of cold air arrives Tuesday 12/30. This will keep high temperatures in 60s and lows in the 40s for the next several days. I'm still keeping an eye on a potential pattern shift around 1/4 to 1/8. It could bring milder temperatures, though rain chances are uncertain at this time.

WEATHER UPDATE: 2:30 PM SAT 12/20/2014

Clouds will eventually clear out Sunday and we will see warmer conditions for the start of the shortened workweek. You can spot the warm anomaly on the map below.

I had initially thought we would see a blast of cold air around Christmas. Although temperatures will dramatically drop for the end of next week, the core of the coldest air will miss us to the east, which you can spot on the map below.

Afterwards, the forecast becomes tricky. A blocking ridge develops in the Gulf of Alaska. The placement of this ridge will determine if we will see rain or not. If it is far enough north, then we could see a system sneak underneath. However, those chances are looking slim. More than likely it will remain mostly dry in San Diego and Southern California for the next couple weeks. I'll keep you posted.

WEATHER UPDATE: 8:00 PM WED 12/17/2014

There is a slight chance for a passing shower on Thursday, though it looks like the majority of the day will be dry. Best chance for rain will be from 10 AM to 6 PM and the chance is less than 20%.

It's looking like the chance for rain on Saturday is significantly less. Definitely keep any outdoor plans.

Computer forecasts are hinting at a major cold blast for next week around Christmas. You can spot it on the charts below (850 mb temps). The first map is for tomorrow, the next one shows a big warm up next Monday, then the last map shows a dramatic drop in temps for the day after Christmas.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: TUE 12-16-2014 TO WED 12-17-2014

Here are the rain totals for the past couple days.

Also, here are the snow reports from the National Weather Service:

 MOUNTAIN HIGH AND MT BALDY RESORTS.....8-10 INCHES
 BIG BEAR RESORT AT 7000 FEET...........5-7
 MT BALDY ROAD TOP......................5
 GREEN VALLEY LAKE......................5
 WRIGTHWOOD AT 6100 FEET................3
 RUNNING SPRINGS........................2
 ARROWBEAR LAKE.........................2
 IDYLLWILD..............................2
 BARTON FLATS...........................2
 WRIGHTWOOD PUBLIC WORKS YARD...........2
 BIG BEAR YARD..........................1
 BLUE JAY...............................1
 MT LAGUNA..............................1/2-1
 LAKE ARROWHEAD AT 5200 FT..............1/2
 PALOMAR MT.............................1/2

WEATHER UPDATE: 6 AM WED 12/17/2014

The heaviest rain is now pushing through the area. These showers should taper from 7 AM to 8 AM. An isolated shower or or quick downpour could pop up this later this afternoon and evening, however, most of the remaining day will be dry.

Another batch of showers will approach the area early Thursday (best chances 8 AM to 2 PM). This should be a quick bout with rain and the day will finish dry.

There is slight chance for a passing shower on Saturday, but it's looking like a mainly dry weekend.

Here are the rain totals as of 6 AM:

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: MON 8:00 PM 12/15/2014

 **Update: 6 AM**

Heaviest showers still remain off the coast. They should arrive 10 AM to 1 PM.

***

More rain is coming soon! There are no major changes to my previous forecast. Some drizzle could develop later tonight, then showers will arrive tomorrow morning. A quick downpour and even some thunder will also be possible. Spotty showers will persist on-and-off for the rest of the day.

As expected, the second storm system will be stronger and bring a chance for higher rain totals. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Periodic showers will then linger into Wednesday night. Most areas will be dry by Thursday morning.

It will be a tough call on rain amounts because of the potential for thunderstorms. Some areas could get drenched while other areas will only see moderate showers. Regardless, I think it is safe to say that we will see storm totals of around 0.5" to 1.0" with isolated higher amounts, especially in the mountains. I've posted the computer forecast below (NAM), which I think is reasonable.

SAN DIEGO NEXT RAIN CHANCE: UPDATED SUN 11 AM 12/14/2014

More rain is headed this way for the upcoming workweek. This storm is going to come at us in two phases. I've marked them on the water vapor imagery and the ECMWF 500 mb charts below.

The initial piece of energy, which is weaker, will bring widely scattered showers Monday night into Tuesday. The stronger upper low will swing under the belly of the system in the Gulf Of Alaska and then approach the our area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will bring rain and occasional downpours. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday as colder air aloft arrives in the region.

I'll be the first to admit that storms like this (broken in pieces) can be difficult to forecast. The amount of rain we receive is largely dependent on the strength of the storm as is passes. This second wave has me concerned because it will be intensifying as it passes overhead, giving us a wider range of possibilities. This is compounded by the threat of thunderstorms, which means that some people might see torrential rain, while others might not see much at all.

At this point, I think the computer forecasts are being a tad too aggressive, especially GFS, which has been terrible with storm placement and strength lately. Below are the NAM projected rain totals through Wednesday evening. You can see that we could potentially get about an inch of rain. Also notice the heavier amounts for Northern California.

Yet another system could pass the area on Saturday. I'll focus on that system later in the week. Afterwards, it looks like the start of next week (Sun-Mon 12/21-12/24) will be mild and dry for Southern California as an upper level ridge nudges into the West Coast (marked on the map below).

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS & STORM RECAP: THU 12/11/14 TO SAT 12/13/14

There is a stray lingering shower off the coast of Del Mar. This might bring a little rain inland to areas near Miramar in the next hour, otherwise, most of San Diego County will remain dry for the rest of today. As promised, here are the rain totals. The first image represents rainfall for the last 24 hours, then the second image shows the storm totals from Thursday to today.

This was an impressive storm system to say the least. It was a powerful upper level storm that blasted the entire West Coast. You can see it on the 500 mb maps below.

Check out the atmospheric river on the image below. It was intense over Northern California (heaviest rainfall), however, you can see that the stream weakened before entering into Southern California.

Here are the rain totals for all of California. The first map shows the 24 hour total rainfall, the second is a 7 day total (click to enlarge). I've also included the 14 Day and 60 Day rain totals for all of California.

More rain is headed this way for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. This system doesn't look as organized as the previous storm, so rain totals won't be as impressive. I'll have another update tomorrow.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE: SATURDAY 7:30 AM 12/13/2014

Spotty showers and downpours will pass the area for the next couple hours. I'm expecting the rain chance to diminish in the coastal and inland areas by 11 AM and in the mountains by 3 PM. Afterwards, the rest of the weekend will remain dry. I will post rain totals later this afternoon.

I'm still expecting more rain for the middle of the upcoming workweek, though this next system will not be as organized, so rain totals will not be as impressive.

More updates to come!

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: THURSDAY 12/11/14 TO FRIDAY 12/12/14

Spotty showers and an occasional downpour will be possible through early tomorrow morning. Then we will remain dry for the rest of the weekend. More rain is headed this way for next Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Here are the 48 hour rain totals so far from this storm system.

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: WED 12/3/2014 TO FRIDAY 12/5/2014

I was out of town during this rain storm, but I heard it was a good one. Here are the 24-hour daily totals.