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NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED FRIDAY 11-22-2019

I'm keeping a close eye on our next storm system, which could bring significant rainfall to Southern California heading into Thanksgiving. There will be an enormous buckle in the jet stream, which will allow a powerful storm system to dive south from the Gulf of Alaska and settle right off the coast of California. You can spot it on the first map below.

Most computer forecasts have rain arriving in our area midday Wednesday. We will then experience several rounds of rain with embedded downpours that will persist through the day on Thanksgiving.

Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, then lingering showers will diminish Saturday. If this system takes the current projected path, rain totals could easily approach 3-4" with higher amounts in the mountains. I've included one computer outlook below.

Snow levels will be high though Thanksgiving, then levels will drop as the core of the system passes overhead. This should bring snow to the taller mountains in San Diego County.

This storm system is still far away, so a lot can change with the forecast. Given the upcoming Holiday, you should start planning for bad road conditions. Better safe than sorry!

I'll bring more updates in the coming days.



SNOW TOTALS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: TUESDAY 11-19-2019 TO THURSDAY 11-21-2019

STATION                        SNOW(IN)   ELEVATION(FT)

GREEN VALLEY LAKE                 13           6900
ARROWBEAR                          9           6200
RUNNING SPRINGS                    9           6200
BIG BEAR RESORTS                   5           7100
END OF BALDY ROAD                  5           6400
BARTON FLATS                       4           8800
WRIGHTWOOD                         4           6040
LAKE ARROWHEAD                     3           5400
FOREST FALLS                       3           6000
BLUE JAY                           3           5400
BIG BEAR LAKE                      3           6800
WRIGHTWOOD                         3           5900
BIG BEAR CITY                      3           6800
RUNNING SPRINGS                    2-3         6100
PALOMAR MTN                        2           5580
ANGELUS OAKS                       2           5700
BIRCH HILL                         2           5645
MT. LAGUNA LODGE                   2           5918
CRESTLINE                          1.5         4500
LAKE ARROWHEAD                     1.5         5200

SAN DIEGO RAIN TOTALS: TUESDAY 11-19-2019 TO THURSDAY 11-21-2019

Here are the 3-day rain totals at 5 PM Thursday.


Barona (BNAC1)2.79
Barret Lake (BRTC1)3.07
Birch Hill (IRCC1)4.42
Bonita (BNNC1)1.52
Bonsall (BOSC1)1.35
Brown Field (SDM)2.08
Cactus County Park (CCPC1)1.76
Camp Pendleton (NFG)1.09
Cuyamaca Reservoir (CYDC1)4.35
Deer Springs (DRGC1)2.74
Descanso (DENC1)4.43
Echo Dell (ECDC1)3.59
El Cajon (LCKC1)2.19
El Camino Del Norte (ECMC1)1.21
El Capitan Dam (ELPC1)2.36
Encinitas (ENCC1)0.87
Escondido (ESOC1)2.40
Fashion Valley (FSNC1)0.99
Flinn Springs (FLYC1)2.61
Goose Valley (GOSC1)3.05
Granite Hills (GRHC1)2.13
Harbison Canyon (HARC1)2.80
Henshaw Dam (HAWC1)4.69
Julian (JLNC1)3.28
Kearny Mesa (KEAC1)0.83
La Jolla Amago (LJOC1)3.20
La Mesa (LMSC1)1.30
Lake Hodges (HODC1)2.89
Las Flores (LSFC1)0.24
Lindbergh Int'l Airport (SAN)0.78
Marron Valley (MAVC1)1.10
Mesa Grande (MEGC1)3.91
Miramar Lake (MMRC1)1.84
Mission Valley (BVDC1)1.20
Mt Woodson Rd - Ramona (RMAC1)2.89
Oceanside (OCNC1)0.67
Oceanside (OKB)0.87
Otay Mountain (OTYC1)4.52
Palomar Airport (CRQ)1.03
Palomar Airport (PLMC1)1.05
Palomar Mountain CRS (PMMC1)4.31
Pine Hills (PIHC1)3.84
Pine Hills Fire Station (PHIC1)4.21
Point Loma (L13)1.11
Potrero (PRCC1)3.45
Poway (PWYC1)2.47
Ramona (RMNC1)3.70
Ramona (RNM)2.15
Rancho Bernardo (RNBC1)2.12
Rincon Springs (RINC1)3.04
Roads Division 1 HQ (RDHC1)1.97
San Diego Estates (ESTC1)2.02
San Marcos Cnty Rd Stn (SMXC1)1.52
San Marcos Landfill (NMLC1)1.21
San Miguel (MIGC1)0.91
San Pasqual (PSQC1)2.58
Santa Ysabel (SYSC1)3.40
Santee - Mast Rd (STEC1)0.24
Skyline Ranch (SKLC1)3.19
Solana Beach (SOB)0.13
Sutherland Dam (SUDC1)4.11
Vallecitos Repeater (VCIC1)2.35
Valley Center (VALC1)4.33
Valley Center (VLCC1)4.14
Volcano Mountain (VCNC1)3.67
Warner Springs (WSGC1)3.18
Wire Mountain (WIRC1)0.70
Witch Creek Fire Stn (WCHC1)3.79
Wohlford Dam (WHLC1)2.18

NEXT RAIN CHANCE SAN DIEGO: UPDATED MONDAY 11-18-2019

There are no major changes from the initial forecast. The storm system is on our doorstep and will bring the first substantial rainfall to Southern California this rain season.

On the satellite image below, you can spot a system spinning to our south. This will provide some moisture to our area tomorrow. An isolated shower could pop up Tuesday, especially in the afternoon (40%).

A better chance for rain arrives Tuesday night and persists through the day on Wednesday as a more potent system dives from the north (also spotted on the satellite image below). Periods of rain are likely during this time period (90%). Isolated downpours and thunderstorms are also possible.

Lingering showers are possible Thursday, especially in the morning, as the system exits the region (60%). The rain chance completely diminishes by late Thursday afternoon.

Rain totals will range from 0.5" to 1.0" for coastal and inland areas. Isolated areas in the mountains could easily exceed 2.0". I've posted a computer forecast of rain totals below.

Snow levels will drop as low as 5,500 feet on Wednesday. Some wet snow is possible on the tallest mountains in San Diego County, though it probably won't accumulate. Taller mountains to the north (above 8,000 feet) will get a few inches of wet snow.

Stay safe out there!



FORECAST

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

COAST INLAND

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