Tropical Storm Paine is currently off the west coast of Mexico and is moving northwest at 14 mph. Most computer forecasts have this system being deflected to the northeast and away from Southern California.
This forecast can be tricky because right now there is a weak low pressure system to the north of Paine. This system is cut off from the jet stream and is drifting aimlessly. Most computer simulations have Paine getting absorbed into the system and moving eastward.
However, computers can be terrible at forecasting cut-off lows. If the system drifts a little farther westward, then the remnants of Paine could creep up from the Baja.
I'll keep watching the data and bring more updates.
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