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DRY PATTERN CONTINUES

As the phrase goes for March, "In like a lion, out like a lamb". Things have been very quiet for the past couple weeks, and I don't see any major changes until possibly next weekend (3/30 to 3/31), where we might see some rain sneak into the area. I hope you're enjoying the nice spring weather!

SATURDAY WEATHER UPDATE & RAIN TOTALS - 3/9/2013

Most of today will be dry, but there is still a slight chance for an isolated shower, especially in the mountains. I've posted the 24 hour rain totals below. In addition, I posted the overall storm totals over the past few days for the entire state of California.

Next week still looks crazy warm. I wouldn't be surprised if inland temps climb into the upper 80s by the end of the week. We could see rain return by the middle of the month.

 
 

SAN DIEGO WEATHER UPDATE AND RAIN TOTALS - FRIDAY 3/8/2013

A few showers and an occasional downpour are still possible today. In fact, there is some rain headed this way as I type this update at 9 AM. The air will be somewhat unstable, so I can't rule out a thunderstorm or two. Snow levels will drop to around 4000 feet later today (some areas could drop to 3000 ft).

An isolated shower is still possible on Saturday, however, most of the day looks dry. Next week still looks very warm...possibly mid to upper 80s inland by the end of the week!

I've posted the rain totals on the map below. You can always find up-to-date totals at the following link:

http://sandiegoweathercenter.blogspot.com/p/rain.html

 
Also, check out the mountain snow from this webcam on Sky Oaks this morning - beautiful!
 
 

WEST COAST STORM

Ok, back to giving updates for the San Diego area. Isolated showers will be possible tomorrow (Thursday), however, most of the day looks dry. Scattered showers will then overspread the area Thursday night and into Friday. An occasional downpour or even a thunderstorm will be possible Friday afternoon.

Snow levels will range from 5000 to 7000 feet Thursday. Then they will drop as low as 3000 to 5000 feet on Friday.

We are then headed towards a major warm up next week. We could see 80s by next Wednesday!

LAST UPDATE ON MID-ATLANTIC SNOW

UPDATED 3/6

Well, it looks like the heaviest snow will miss Richmond to the north and northwest. It was close, but no cigar for all the snow lovers in RVA. You have to be careful with storms like this. A slight shift to the south could still bring a quick 1 to 3" to the metro area. The farther north you live, the better chance you will see accumulations. In fact, a band of 3 to 6" will be *just* north of the metro. Good luck out there!


A LOOK AT THE EARLY COMPUTER MODELS

The northern trend continues with the latest runs of the NAM and RPM (which initializes off the NAM). I still think they are too far north, but at this point, these models have credence. I'm going to drop my amounts to 2-4" for Richmond, but the higher accumulations will definitely be to the north and west of the city.
 



UPDATE ON MID-ATLANTIC SNOW

I'm always amazed at how reliable the ECMWF (this morning's run pictured below) can be with storms like this. The ensemble mean nailed this storm early last week! Accumulations will be hard to verify in some locations because of melting. It will definitely be a wet snow in central VA. I think 3 to 6" will be possible for eastern parts of the metro, while western sides could reach 4 to 8". Parts of the Blue Ridge could exceed two feet! These are early guesses and of course are subject to change.

IMPRESSIVE STORM HEADED TOWARDS MID-ATLANTIC

Looks like my friends back in Virginia will see an impressive snow next week. The pattern is ripe for it. Not to mention there have been several consecutive computer model runs showing the same scenario. The ECMWF ensemble mean (maps below) shows an impressive low off the coast next Wednesday. Good luck out there!

 

FORECAST

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

COAST INLAND