The air will be warm and humid, which makes the atmosphere unstable. You can see the SFC CAPE levels (instability parameter) on the map below. A weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will pass the area and spark the formation of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The strongest storms will bring heavy downpours and lightning/thunder. These storms will be hit-and-miss, so not every area will see the heavy rain. Regardless, you should be prepared for the possibility of poor driving conditions during the Monday evening commute.
A stray shower is possible Monday morning, however, the best chances for rain will be from 3 PM Monday through 8 AM Tuesday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms could again pop up on Tuesday afternoon.
|ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MONDAY EVENING|