- GFS is out to lunch. How can the band of snow magically disappear once it moves into the eastern half of VA? However, if it continues to show the same scenario for tomorrow's 12Z and 00Z runs, I might be a little worried.
- What happened to the NAM? I expected a slight shift south, but this is ridiculous. I expect a dramatic shift back northward tomorrow morning.
- ECMWF has shifted *slightly* northward. Wobbling is to be expected as the storm approaches. ECMWF ensemble never ceases to amaze me when it comes to these type of storms. It's the best medium to long range forecasting tool.
- RPM snow accumulations match the ECMWF storm track. It has the best solution this evening.
Right now I'm keeping with my 3 to 6" forecast for Richmond. Here are factors that can ruin my forecast:
- Surface temperatures
- Ground temperatures
- Prolonged period of sleet
- Shift in the track of the storm
The data tomorrow will be more reliable, so don't get too excited (or sad) until then.